Some nice examples of social entrepreneurs

Can you run a business without aiming to maximize profits? And in the meantime do good for society? Or better: making profit by doing good for society! Welcome in the world of social entrepreneurship...

New dynamics in the health care market

No doubt health care is subject to some profound shifts. People take a more pro-active stance with regards of their health care, rely increasingly on their network to get advise with regards of their health, and new tools are being developed that enable them to monitor -and sometimes act on- their health by themselves. Just think about the fact that there are now some 8000 apps in Apple's store that have something to do with managing your health...

Perhaps the most sophisticated example of this is what Scanadu is now working on:



As said, what all these initiatives point to is a profound paradigm shift in the health care market, which can be represented by the graphic here under (inspired by the work of consultancy Across Health):

The top left quadrant is probably what we're most accustomed to: patients trust 'traditional' institutions (doctors, governments) with their health, which is treated reactively (you get ill, go to a doctor, get a precription and -hopefully- get better). The last few years saw a shift downwards, where patients increasingly trust their network for medical advice (multitude of websites are enabling this), and have a more pro-active approach to the management of their health (the 'start to run' movement is a beautiful example).

What's next? Very likely the traditional institutions will move to a more pro-active approach as well, helped by the advancements of DNA mapping, which will for instance allow for diseases to be avoided before they occur. In other words, the traditional health providers will become the partners of their patients, and provide a pro-active service to manage their health from cradle to grave. This won't happen overnight, of course, but the early signs are here...

A new source of energy: our body

Well, this could open a whole new range of devices...

Survey shows huge potential for Belgian web-startups

The Institute for Future Insights and internet website Bloovi recently organized a survey with 61 Belgian web-startups. The survey results show a huge potential for these companies, that are expecting a turnover growth of more than 700% in the next 2 years, and could add up to 10,000 new full-time positions in Belgium.

The 'executive summary' is freely available for everyone here under, the full report can be purchased at www.belgianwebstartups.be.

How the internet will transform governments

This is quite thought-provoking, and will require some concentration in order to fully grasp what Clay Shirky is saying in the TED-talk here under. Basically, Clay argues that society -and more specifically the relationship between governments and citizens- can be better organized through an open, distributed model, rather than the 'command and control' model that is currently in place.

Take the open source movement as an example, with the source code Linux as its showcase. The code has been written by thousands of anonymous contributors, without any central co-ordination or guiding rules. Its chaotic, but thanks to the unique signature that is provided with each contribution, a certain logic or system can be attached to each contribution, and ultimately lead to something robust and use-able.

And now apply the same logic to how society is organized, like -for instance- how law is being written. Couldn't this be done with the help of thousands of anonymous contributors? Welcome in the true meaning of 'open government'...

4 ways to use long-term trend assessments to ensure your future success

4 ways to use long term trend assessments for your business from Frederic De Meyer

Why vertical farming is such a good idea

Glad to have stumbled on Dickson Despommier's blog - an authority with regard of Vertical Farming. His main argument in favor of vertical farming is that it would diminish the food price volatility we will likely face due to he changing climate, though vertical farming definitely holds other advantages as well.

(from his blog:) "Dare I remind us all that climate change issues will continue confound and disrupt this already seriously flawed system of outdoor food production. What a different world this would be if we could produce most of what we needed year round in vertical farms located inside cities. I know this sounds a bit preachy, but I think the concept of the vertical farm is the only viable option we have to a long-term solution to the world food crisis. Why, I'll bet we could even work out a way to produce animal feed this way, too."

His blog is already packed with loads of valuable info, but for a short overview of his main thoughts see the two video's below:

4 ways to spot long-term trends

Since so many people asked, hereby some thought about how to spot long-term trends...

4 ways to spot long term trends from Frederic De Meyer

What every business can learn from young entrepreneurs

For my second book I took a look at a number of young entrepreneurs - what they are made of, what trends are they working on, etc. In this presentation I discuss what I learned from them and how these learnings could (and should) be applied to traditional businesses as well (in order to attract and retain young innovative talent). Of course it's better to have the narratives along, so don't hesitate to get in touch if you'd want this presented 'live' at one of your events...

What every business can learn from young entrepreneurs (publ) from Frederic De Meyer

Corporate Shared Value as a capitalist act?

Do corporations have a social responsibility? In a time where a Wallmart has the same number of employees then there are citizens in the capital of Europe, one could easily argue that they do. Some companies are as big in terms of revenue as some European countries (a comparison that is a bit flawed, I admit).

But why should they take social responsibility? In capitalistic terms, companies exist to make profit, not to 'do good'. According to Michael Porter in the interview here under, they should do so as a capitalist reflex. Fair enough, some forms of social responsibilities can lead to tremendous -and profitable- innovations. Furthermore, the scale at which multinational firms operate can enable small, local initiatives to be leveraged globally, and profitably.

In short, according to Porter, if we want to make companies behave in a more responsible way, we should show them where the profit is -or they should find out themselves. No sense of 'moral duty' in our capitalistic system. It's a bit a sore thought, according to me. There should be other reasons for companies to have a social consciousness... Risk aversion, image building, raising attractiveness to younger employees, ... OK, indirectly these relate to maximizing profits as well, but they're surely softer arguments to 'do good', and I see plenty of evidence for these motivations in the companies I work with... Perhaps it's even the capitalist logic itself that is slightly changing, but perhaps that's wishful thinking...

A brilliant case for personalized medicines

Most of current medicines don't work, simply because they're not adapted to your specific DNA. With the declining cost of profiling your genome, however, drugs in the future will be tailor-made to your specific needs. According to Mehmet Oz, this would enable us to treat diseases like Alzheimer well in advance.

But perhaps the most striking statement is that we shouldn't expect the health care sector, nor the government, to make this happen. This revolution should be made from within our homes...

A fascinating discussion:

Are big corporations loosing their appeal for young innovative talents?

I recently published my second book, a study of young Flemish entrepreneurs and what every business can learn from them. For obvious reasons the book will only appear in Dutch. As a futurist, I was particularly interested in what these young entrepreneurs had in common. After all, these youngsters will partially define how the business environment will look like five to ten years from now (‘if you want to know the future, look at your children’, remember?).

Did they have the same education? Nope. Did they have their parents as role models of entrepreneurship? Nope. Did they have some particular experience abroad? Nope.

Then I checked their professional experience, and it’s there that I found something quite remarkable.

Let me start with the couple of more experienced entrepreneurs that advised me while writing the book. What you see on the graph beneath is the number of years they spent as full-time employee, as entrepreneur or as a mixture of both, starting from the end of their studies:

This picture shouldn’t be too surprising. The ‘older’ generation of entrepreneurs started by building an experience of 8-12 years in a traditional company, and then have a radical break for one reason or another, to become full-time entrepreneurs.

Let’s compare this with the younger generation of entrepreneurs that I cover in the book. Strangely enough, I had to make a distinction between those that are older than 30 years, and those younger. Let’s start with those that are older than 30:

What we see is that these youngsters start with their own initiative much earlier than the more experienced entrepreneurs, but they do this in combination with a ‘traditional’ job of some kind. Perhaps they start to have a family and for that they’re more risk-averse.

But how different is this from the entrepreneurs younger than 30!

These youngsters start immediately with their own thing. Sometimes in combination with a ‘traditional’ job, which they leave very soon in order to build their own company!

There’s plenty of explanations to this, of course: entry-level for web startups is lower than ever; virtually everyone has access to the global market nowadays; there’s plenty of programs to stimulate entrepreneurship at high-school, etc.

An extra wildcard from my side, based on all the discussions I had with these young entrepreneurs: working within a big established firm has lost a bit of its sex appeal. There’s no glory anymore in building a career in a traditional company.

This obviously poses a serious threat to traditional companies. I’m not saying every youngster will build his startup instead of joining a company. What I’m saying is that the most brilliant ones, the most innovative ones, will not hesitate to do so –at least not as long as their older peers did. Mix this with the changing needs and wishes of Generation Y employees, and upcoming talent gap which we start to experience in some areas already, and you start to have a sense of the magnitude of the challenge.

There’s plenty of things companies can do in order to counter this trend. The most important one is to (re)introduce a spirit of entrepreneurship in the company. It’s easier said than done, so stay tuned on this blog for some advise on this.

(oh, and for my Flemish-speaking readers, the book is now available at my publisher Die Keure)

The problem with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

There's a lot of debate on whether CCS is a valuable instrument to counter climate change. In my eyes, it could on the short term, but on the other hand: if the only answer we 'intelligent' beings can give to a problem is to store it under the ground, I would start to doubt our 'intelligence'.

It could however solve the issue in short term. Too bad the investments in CCS plant appeared to have stopped everywhere except in Norway, due to the 'high cost' of these solutions -after all we're in a crisis. Guess the 'high cost' doesn't factor in the costs of a declining environment...

36 Rules of social media

Even if social media is just at the verge & will undoubtedly be subject to many, many changes in the next decades, it's still worthy to learn how to cope with it today... Here's the best overview I've found so far on what to do (and not to do) with social media:

Source: dr4ward.com via DR4WARD on Pinterest

The dirty secrets of clean energy and the future of environmentalism

I must admit it: I am a techno-optimist with regards of climate change issues. Or at least I was, before reading ‘Green Illusions’ by Ozzy Zehner. In the first half of the book, Ozzy breaks down any argument that ‘green’ energy technologies could help to save the planet…

Solar? Inefficient, dirty in making, dirty in cleaning (of which it needs a lot in the best locations: deserts), dirtier still at the end of life.
Wind? Unpredictable, bound to a limited number of (remote) locations, generates loads of CO2 in the production process.
Biofuels? Pollutes water, and ethanol is quite dirty and non-renewable.
Clean Coal? A hoax! Hydropower? A cause for geopolitical tensions. Geothermal? Causes earthquakes.

It’s not that Ozzy is in denial of the challenges ahead, quite the contrary. But he arguments that producing more energy, even if it’s alternative and green(er), brings us nowhere: “Alternative energy production expands energy supply, placing downwards pressure on prices, which spurs demand, entrenches energy-intensive modes of living’. Ultimately, green energy drives demand for dirty energy.

Makes sense, which is probably why in California energy providers earn more money the less their customer spend energy! The motivation might not be to save the planet, but this kind of decoupling brings us a far way nevertheless…

In the second part of the book Ozzy offers his views on what else can make our future more sustainable, convincingly arguing that environmentalists should focus on such issues rather than on so-called ‘green’ energies.

Some are a bit surprising, for instance when he makes a strong case for the support of women rights, which through multiple effects would benefit a greener future. Some are quite rational: both the challenges and the solutions lie in an different conception and management of our cities. Some got me laughing: making cities more bicycle-friendly is something most European towns already heavily invested in. Some of the remarks and ideas in the book are clearly meant for an American audience.

I love books that shake preconceived assumptions. This one is certainly doing that, and offers some valuable ideas on how to think differently. ‘The only clean energy is: less energy’!



Check out my previous book reviews:

• "The shift" Lynda Gratton
• "The future of work" Thomas Malone
• "Making globalization work" Joseph Stiglitz
• "2030 -Technologies that will change the world" Van Santen, Khoe, Vermeer
• "What Technology wants" David Kelly
• "Crowdsourcing" Jeff Howe
• "The next big thing" William Higham
• "Future Files" Richard Watson
• "Future savvy" Adam Gordon
• "Futurewise" Patrick Dixon
• "Ecological intelligence" Daniel Goleman

How companies can benefit from the growth of cities in emerging markets

In a fascinating report by McKinsey&Company, they advice global companies to refocus their attention to cities rather than (emerging) countries. The growing cities in emerging are creating specific opportunities for all sorts of industries. Some examples, like water provision in Mumbai or babyfood and diapers in Dar Es Alaam, are provided in the slideshow.

Makes sense, but what intrigued me most were the statistics behind this conclusion:

• by 2025, half of global economic growth will come from 440 cities in emerging markets;
• by 2025, 440 emerging market cities will have more households with incomes of $20.000 or above than will the cities in developed economies;
• the contribution of the cities to economic growth of the country will vary from 94% (in China) to 70% in sub-saharan Africa (by comparison, it will be 64% in Europe;
• and last but not least, only 20% of executives are making location decisions at city level... 

Plenty of opportunities ahead... Read more or download the report here.

'Intrapreneurs', a new function in corporate life?

Is it just a a new buzz, or is there something more fundamental going on? Fact is that the use of the term ‘intrapreneur’ has grown rapidly past two years. You know: employees whose mission it is to create little start-ups within established companies – or at least use start-up techniques to implement new ideas within their companies.

However, the skepticism with which intrapreneurs are received by ‘true’ entrepreneurs makes some sense. Their biggest arguments:

• True entrepreneurs take true financials risks. In comparison, salaried intrapreneurs are bathing in luxurious security. 
• True entrepreneurs built their start-ups themselves, stone by stone. Intrapreneurs can rely on the services of their company for virtually all overhead tasks. 
• >True entrepreneurs are driven by their passion, their mission. Since the work of intrapreneurs will ultimately benefit their employer, their drive would be much less.

All valid arguments. But let’s say you’re 28. You have a couple of years of experience in the corporate world, but you’re eager to build your own thing. Develop your own idea from a to z. Take full responsibility for the problems that might arise. Solve them all by yourself. Fight to survive, but ultimately reap the full and juicy fruit of the success that will inevitably come.

On the other side: you have one or two kids that are still in an expensive daycare. You just built the house of your dream –with an expensive mortgage. You enjoy having two or three weeks of holiday to discover exotic places. You have some hobbies that are not necessarily expensive, but that require some investments.

So you have the choice: either you (1) repress your entrepreneurial dreams, work hard from 9 to 5 and try to have a fulfilling life next to it (that’s so generation babyboomer), or (2) you try to combine things and test your ideas in your free hours, or even within your company (that’s so genX), or (3) you take the risk and chase your dream (that’s so… ehm…).

Is there a middle way? Well, yes: become an intrapreneur. Let’s be honest, this is just a fresh term for something that exists since modern corporations were born. Any innovative project that was launched and managed by an employee could be seen as an act of intrapreneurship. Nevertheless, it diserves a term on its own, especially now given the vital importance of innovation in corporate life nowadays. In a time where new business models redesign complete markets you’d better be pro-active and redesign it yourself. And therefore you need… yes: intrapreneurs.

How companies should adapt their culture to reap the benefits of social media

What is the true impact of the emergence of social media on companies? The question might sound trivial nowadays. Aren’t virtually all companies –at least the public ones- ‘present’ on social media, in one form or another? They probably are. But are they getting the maximum out of this ‘presence’? In other words: do they use social media as a strategic tool rather than a tactical one?

In his latest book, Steven Van Belleghem calls companies making strategic use of social media the ‘Conversation companies’. Rarely has a business author chosen a better word to express his idea: successfully using social media means leading conversations with whomever is talking about you, it’s about re-actively AND pro-actively engaging with your audience. Companies all too often limit their social media presence to sending company updates (hoping that nobody will reply) or (if they’re a little more sophisticated) replying to complaints and negative comments.

These companies are dealing with a massive amount of what Steven calls ‘unused conversation potential’. Use this potential fully, and you’ll reap the benefits of loyal fans of your brands.

The caveat? You’ll need to have a very close look at your company’s culture, and most probably adapt it. That’s easier said than done, but it’s not impossible. Steven’s book ‘the conversation company’ provides a concrete –and feasible- roadmap on how to do this. With a massive amount of case studies to make his point(s).

How strange however that Steven first wrote a book about ‘The Conversation Manager’ before writing ‘The conversation company’: I can’t imagine any company appointing a conversation manager before they turned into a conversation company. Nevertheless, Steven’s message is pressing: companies that don’t take these conversations seriously face the risk of being left behind. Perhaps for good.

A crucial read !

The future of shopping

A preview of the (near) future customer experience, according to BlackBerry... what's striking is that online tools are being integrated into the 'real life' experience, they don't replace it...

Is the 'Bring your own device' trend viable for businesses?

It almost sounds like a good deal for everyone: bring your own devices (BYOD) to work for professional reasons. For employers obviously this reduces some costs (but increases some risks at the same time), while employees would be able to work with the devices that they are familiar with -and that are often much more
performant than the devices they receive from their employer (never believed the latter argument until I started working on my own...).

But is it real? According to research company IDC, currently 41% of the devices used at work are owned by the employees, and this will rise to 55% by 2015. I guess the smart phones take a lion share of that. More intriguing is the idea to use personal apps for professional use (or, at least, have the employer let you choose which apps you want to use).

One step closer to the virtual company... but do you think that's a good thing?

3 megatrends infographic: personal productivity, speed and the clash between tech and real world

Very insightful infograph by Launchcapital - who unfortunately don't have a Facebook or Twitter share functionality, so I'll have to share it this way... all credit goes to them, however, this is nicely thought-provoking stuff - although limited to 3 areas:

• personal productivity
• the clash between tech and real world
• the impact of speed

A holistic approach to global sustainability

Interesting perspective at the World Economic Forum's idea lab. The argument of Johan Rockstrom is that the earth's sustainability level is now in a 'danger zone', but the solution to it can only be holistic, involving many other areas than just global warming or the ozon layer... and, according to Johan, it can be done even with an open economy.

Everything is connected, and hence the solution to the sustainability challenge can only be found through the willingness of global leaders...

Not sure if this last thought makes me optimistic though...

How MORE cattle reverses global warming...

We all know cows are extremely polluting, right? Less of them is good for the planet, right?

Well, think again... Seth Itskan argues we need more of them ! Cattle is actually a solution to global warming, and one that takes local farmers at the forefront of this solution.

or how conventional thinking is not always the right thinking:

The (future) fight for the arctic region...

The melting of the arctic ice is going much more rapidly than predicted -some scientists expect all ice to have disappeared by 2040. Bad news for the arctic (and perhaps global) ecosystem, good news for the economy: this would open new -shorter- navigation routes (in itself bad news for the economies of the South), and new oil wells will unravel (not sure if I like that one).

Thing is, this trend is self-feeding: the more territories become ice-free, the more human activity will establish in them, which in turn will lead to more melting of surrounding ice. From what I read this trend is already over the point of no-return.

But, more crucial, is its impact on geopolitical balances. The 6 countries at the border of the arctic (Russia, US, Canada, Norway, Iceland and Denmark-Greenland) will obviously try to put their hands on these 'new' territories, and China is trying hard to raise its presence in some of these regions as well. Russia is undoubtedly the best positioned right now (it has the highest level of activity in the region already), but the stakes are so high that all countries concerned are raising their attention to the region.

No doubt this will reshuffle some geopolitical cards, but the ultimate outcome is hard to predict...

Augmented reality devices getting mainstream

The future is 'augmented', especially if it's seen through ultra-slim glasses... I'm not necessarily in favor or against it, just wondering whether I can imagine any application that will make me want any of these...  The automatic translator sounds useful enough:

The future of business organizations, can every function be virtualized?

Last couple of weeks I’ve been giving a number of speeches about the future of business organizations. At the start of the talk I ask the question whether one can imagine a completely ‘virtualized company’, in other words: ‘could a company of, say, 40B$ turnover be managed and operated by one single person?’

Well, could it?

In each of the corporate divisions we can actually see some trends emerge that, if taken to the extreme, would signify a complete virtualization of this function;

• R&D? think about what effects open innovation, open sourcing or consumer driven innovation would have…
• Manufacturing? just imagine if every family or community would own a 3D printer… not at all science fiction
• Marketing? aren’t trends like crowdsourcing and social buying making this function a bit irrelevant?
• IT? think of the consequences of DIY technology, cloud and consumerization…

And so on.

But obviously, the future is rarely extreme. What all these trends really imply is that the world increasingly becomes part of your operations, and hence it is the nature of all these divisions’ responsibilities and competencies. Grossly put the near future looks like this:

The full slide-deck is now available on slideshare!

Don’t hesitate to contact me to have this presentation ‘live’ for your team, company or industry event !

Tips & tricks to use megatrends for strategic innovation #5/5: 'consider anti-trends'

This might sound counter-intuitive, but some trends can lead to counter-movements. This obviously doesn't apply to all trends: however hard you try to oppose ageing population, I don't see how exactly you would succeed at it. But take another example: the digitization of society -the fact that we're increasingly 'connected', always and everywhere. It's not so absurd to think that an increasing amount of people will choose to opt out of technology? Question then is: does this represent an opportunity for your business?

By way of example of these trends versus anti-trend discussions, this is a brief summary of a debate at a meeting of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia. The speaker discussed five megatrends that according to CSIRO would have the biggest influence on society in the coming years. A consultant from Bridge8 who attended the conference argued that each of these five trends could lead to the contrary. Here is a brief summary of these arguments:

When discussing megatrends internally, don't forget to discuss the potential anti-trends as well and see whether they constitute an opportunity (or a threat) to your business.


(You will find more tips & tricks, as well as a discussion of more than 20 megatrends in the book 'The impact of megatrends on your company' available on Amazon.com)

Tips and tricks to use megatrends for strategic innovation #4/5: 'communicate extensively'

If you’ve come all this way through the megatrends exercise, you will have collected a vast amount of valuable insights. Not all of these will be used for the conclusions or for the communication of the decisions that were based on this exercise. However, the pieces you don’t use might still be relevant to specific means.

• Your sales people might use them to have a better comprehension of the specific challenges and opportunities of the industries they’re in. A thorough understanding of the megatrends affecting them would enable more meaningful discussions with your customers;
• The insights gained through this exercise could help marketing to sharpen some of your key messages and reinforce the image of your company as a partner to your customers;
• Internal divisions would be better prepared for the trends affecting their activities and gain new ideas for innovation.

All stakeholders could benefit one way or another. Get the maximum out of the exercise and communicate extensively !

(More tips and tricks, as well as a study of the impact of more than 20 megatrends on businesses can be found in my new book 'The impact of megatrends on your business: How to assess the impact of long-term trends on your company and adapt your strategy to ensure future success ', available on Amazon.com)

Tips & tricks for using megatrends for strategic innovation #3/5: 'map the trends'

The most important part of the whole megatrend exercise is to draw valuable conclusions from it. Throughout the exercise you will have gathered tons of opinions and insights, but how do you make sense of all these?

You could write a lengthy report or presentation with all the valuable facts and conclusions, each developed through multiple angles and argumentations. Chances are that your stakeholders will be happy with all this information. They might even find the time to read it. Just before they put the report on their shelves, only to be retrieved at the next desk cleaning effort.

Better is to visualize the insights. And there’s no better way to visualize things, but to segment them.

You could for instance segment trends based on the impact they have on your company (Y-axis) and whether they have developed already, are doing so now or will do somewhere in the future (X-axis). This gives you a good idea on which trends you need to act on urgently:

A more sophisticated way would be to assess whether your company has any influence on the trends or on their consequences (Y axis) and whether they relate to your core business or not (X-axis). While the trends in the top-right box require immediate action, it is the trends in the top left box (‘influence’) that will be the most crucial for you from a competitive and innovation perspective. Think about it for a moment... And if you still don’t know why drop me a mail.

Another good way to visualize conclusions are heat maps. Say you list all the major customer segments you serve (rows) against major megatrends (columns). By coloring based on whether these segments are being threatened or can benefit from these trends, you obtain a valuable overview of the major challenges and opportunities your customers (and hence, indirectly, your business) are facing.

If you need to communicate just one thing from the whole megatrend exercise, it would be these type of graphics. Print them, put them on the walls in the offices of your stakeholders, on the landing page of your intranet, whatever. But make sure people think about these conclusions. 


Click if you missed the previous tips & tricks #1 'Look beyond the obvious' #2 'Discuss internally'

Tips & tricks for using megatrends for strategic innovation #2/5: 'discuss internally'

In the previous post of this series I discussed the selection of megatrends to include in the strategic innovation exercise.

The next step in using megatrends for strategic innovation is to brainstorm them internally. Don’t let any external consultant direct you into their opinions or convictions. Your people are the best judges on how to turn external market shifts into concrete opportunities for your business, so it makes sense to leverage all this internal knowledge.

However, to get the maximum out of these discussions, you’ll need to take a couple of rules into account (and, eventually, get some assistance from external people):

Organize ‘think tanks’ of 4-5 people per subject (demographic trends, geopolitical trends, climate and sustainability, etc)

• Include people with different background,  functions and levels of seniority in the discussions… diversity enriches !
• Take +/- 30 minutes discussion per trend;
• Structure the discussion (impact on industry, impact on customers, impact on channels, …), for instance using the business model canvas; 
• Brief the participants on forehand with a light, easy to read introduction to the trends that will be discussed –for instance with the megatrends fact sheets produced by i4fi.

Good thing is: people really appreciate to have discussions about the ‘bigger picture’ for their company –instead of the weekly commits and the day-to-day problems. It increases their involvement and commitment to the future of your business. In that sense it is also an excellent topic for part of your team meetings…

Tips & tricks for using megatrends for strategic innovation #1/5: 'look beyond the obvious'

Understanding long-term trends and their impact on your business is vital for the long-term competitiveness and –hence- survival of your company. To understand these trends and draw the right conclusions from them in terms of strategy and innovation, i4fi suggests a simple, 4 step approach:

1. Select the trends you want to discuss 
2. Brainstorm them internally 
3. Draw conclusions 
4. Communicate conclusions (extensively)

This looks simple enough but, as so often, the devil is in the detail. Hence this short series of tips and trick in order to make this exercise work and get the maximum out of it.

Let’s start with the first one: “Look beyond the obvious”

There are plenty of trends you could take into account in the exercise. See below for a list of 46 I usually use at the start. Most companies tend to use the trends that directly affect them. Tech companies will consider the impact of the Internet of Things or Mobility. Pharma companies will be inclined to use tends such as ageing population and climate change, for instance.

Problem is:

•  your competitors are using the same trends 
• sometimes trend have an indirect, ‘hidden’ effect on your business which you need to take into account 

So a first imperative to make a megatrend exercise lead to meaningful innovation for your business is simple: consider trends that don’t have an obvious impact on your industry or company. This will ensure you a 360° view as well as building blocks for truly competitive innovation.

PS: you’ll find a full discussion on +20 megatrends and more tips & tricks in this book:

'Transformational Entrepreneurs', the next big thing?

Interesting article in the Harvard Business Review about 'transformational entrepreneurship', a term that designate companies that combine the scalability of technology with the social purpose of social entrepreneurship. The economic impact of the Googles and Amazons can hardly be overestimated, so just imagine what would happen if they had a goal of doing social good ! (okay, some might argue that they are already doing social good, by democratizing information or by providing jobs...)

Max Marmer, the author of the article, puts the nicely in a graphic:

It doesn't take a genius to see that the 'transformational entrepreneurship' segment is relatively empty at this stage (unless you want to put institutions like the World Economic Forum in there, or -why not- TED talks), and hence might constitute an opportunity for companies.

Max then takes this segmentation one step further, expanding it with companies and institutions that have a negative effect on the economy or on society:

I know this is an ideation, but it raises some questions as far as I'm concerned:

• Why would the 'Transformational Non Profit' institutions have a negative economic impact? I know of a couple that have a very positive one, not for themselves (since they're non profit) but for the economies of the countries in which they operate, or by the very mere fact they they provide employment. The segmentation makes sense if 'economic impact' is purely seen as 'profit making', but this reduces the scope of the picture;
• Max seems to indicate that Transformational Entrepreneurship is the next big thing to solve some global challenges. They surely are, but they're not the only ones. Some challenges are very local by nature, scaling them globally might hence produce a negative effect. Also, social entrepreneurs might wish to remain at smaller scale but can lead by example, inspiring others to do the same. The movement or the idea can do global good, while the companies executing them could remain small. The result would be equally beneficiary as for the Transformational Entrepreneurs.

Nevertheless, it is a very appealing idea. Imagine a Google or an Apple focusing on social innovation -at an equal profit. It's not at all a lunatic thought, they have the means and the power to do so....

The (global) consequences of Chinese demographic trends

Due to its size China has an undeniable impact on megatrends such as the rising middle class, global power shifts and resource scarcity. However, its got challenges of its own, some of them I've reported on in a previous post 'The end of cheap China'. But undoubtedly the biggest challenge facing China is its demographics:

The trouble is that in 20 years the amount of youngsters that need to support the elderly will fall dramatically. As stated in The Economist interview here under:

• The overall fertility rate in China is about 1,5 (2 parents have an average of 1,5 children), which in itself indicates a declining population over a generation (since you need 2 persons to replace 2 persons); in some regions the fertility rate is below 1 !
• Today there are about 120 million people in their early 20's entering the Chinese labor market, but in 20 years they will only be 60 million - which will be a drag on the innovation and fresh energy in the economy, according to the Economist editor.

This will have an important impact on economic growth, but also on Chinese consumption patterns -not a trivial matter given its population size. In a recent article from McKinsey Quarterly 'Meet the Chinese consumer of 2020', it observes:

"Most people in China over the age of 55 experienced the harsh conditions of the Cultural Revolution, in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Not surprisingly, they think it important not to spend frivolously. Among residents of tier-one cities, 55- to 65-year-olds allocate half of their spending to food and little to discretionary categories: only 7 percent goes toward apparel, for example. People who are ten years younger devote only 38 percent of their spending to food but 13 percent to apparel. Indeed, our consumer surveys have revealed that although today’s older consumers behave very differently from younger ones, today’s 45- to 54-year-olds—the older generation come 2020—have spending patterns similar to those of 34- to 45-year-olds (who allocate 34 percent of their spending to food and 14 percent to apparel). This finding implies that companies will have to rethink their ideas about what older Chinese consumers want."

One of the advises McKinsey gives to global companies is to take China as a test market to service the aged population worldwide. I'll certainly keep track of their findings...

Is 3D printing the prelude of the 3d industrial revolution?

Well, it might very well...

First and foremost, 3D printing is a direct attack on the principle of 'economies of scale' on which much of our production processes (and, hence, our economies) are based since Henri Ford. Simply put, economies of scale indicate that the cost to produce one item declines if you produce more of them. In many cases it is 'cheaper' to produce one million product rather than just one. With 3D printing, the cost remains the same, whether you are producing just one or one million items.

Secondly, with 3D printing you can make incredibly complex things just as easily as you would make a coffee cup -the design will take a bit longer, but the production wouldn't. This might unleash a wave of completely innovative products.

Lastly, just imagine that every house or community would own such a 3D printer. This is not science fiction, as you could own a 3D printer for 300$ now. What would be the effect on traditional manufacturing? Companies will not be producing things anymore, they would produce the code or the software to produce things.

Regardless of when 3D printing will become mainstream, it will definitely signal a profound change of the economic organisation of our society, perhaps even an industrial revolution...

Google's biggest product failures... the world that could have been

The mantra of consultancy company IDEO 'fail often to succeed sooner' could easily apply to Google. For all the nice and useful things they have delivered so far, they have at least as many failed ones. You may laugh at this, or even see it as proof of bad management. But, to me at least, this shows how even big companies can still keep a entrepreneural spirit. You practically have to make mistakes in business today. And learn from them...

And, even in retrospect, not all the failed ideas were completely ludicrous.


Infographic by WordStream Internet Marketing Software

Is technology ruling our lives?

It's always dangerous to take things for granted. Even more so if it concerns our personal lives, and there's no way around it: technology has been invading our personal lives in recent years. Time to stop for a moment and think about what this means - or listen to Sherry Turkle telling us what it means:

• children compete with technology for the attention of parents;
• technology (at least social networks) give us the illusion of companionship without the efforts of friendship;
• the 'always on' mentality makes us vulnerable, as we lose the habit (and the benefits) of being alone
• online communication make it harder to fix problems since we only share what makes us look good.

Probably the most striking quote: 'if we don't teach children to be alone, they will only know to be lonely'

I must admit I was a bit skeptic in the beginning of her speech, but in the end it gave me plenty to reflect on...

The end of cheap China?

Many projections show how China will become the biggest economy in a couple of years. The calculation is simple enough, since China in average grows at 3 times the pace of the US (currently the biggest economy).

What is often omitted in these projections however, is that China has its own challenges as well. The Economist panel discussion beneath mentions the avenge of 3D printing and the lack of protection for the rising middle class. Strangely they forgot to mention the dramatically aging population in China.

On the positive side the panelists mention China's productivity growth and a solid supply chain in comparison to other Asian countries. But still, the big question for China's near future is how manufacturing will evolve, and whether China is able to morph into a different economic texture in order to benefit from the next wave job growth (wherever that will come from).

Democratizing the workplace, a good idea or not?

Reading the fascinating story of how Brazilian company Semco democratized their company for the past 20 years... to quite a radical extend... just imagine that in your company:

• managers would be appointed (and potentially fired) by their subordinates;
• everyone determines his or her working schedule;
• every unit determines its own quota and budget;

...and so on. The story is fascinating for its visionary qualities and audacious analyses. One would start to hope that these practices are a prelude to how businesses will be run in the future.




For a quick tour of Semco:



The story has lost nothing of its compelling charm and visionary power... the best business book I read so far this year:

Social entrepreneurs innovation... hyper-segmenting the market for micro-financing

Since I'm researching social entrepreneurship for a chapter of my new book, I'm finding a lot of fascinating initiatives. InVenture, basically a micro-financing venture for really tiny local projects, is a good case in point. Micro-financing is already well established -the inventor Muhamed Yunus even received a nobel prize for it. But there's room for innovation even in existing markets, as InVenture proves. It's also a sign of a mature market: hyper segmentation...

I just started to wonder whether this would work in the 'developed' (Western) world as well...

Can any business turn social?

Wonderful anecdote of social entrepreneur Muhammad Yunus, where he tells how he convinced the CEO of Adidas to move (part of) his company and -more importantly- his core product to a social cause. It also shows how hard it is for big incumbent companies to morph into a socially responsible business.

Social good is counter-intuitive to business logic, but more and more companies find ways to combine both. What truly is a prerequisite is the belief of the CEO that this is something his company just should do, regardless of the challenges and the business logic.

How nanotechnology will shape our future

I always get a bit puzzled when discussing the relationship between megatrends and technology. Are technological developments megatrends in themselves, or are they just a consequence of megatrends? Take mobile communication as an example: are people getting more mobile (geographically speaking) because of mobile technology? Or was mobile technology developed as a result of people getting more mobile (and hence have an increasing need to be 'online' everywhere)? I'm inclined to think the latter is true.

However, there is one technology that clearly makes the exception to the rule. The development of Nanotechnology might create new trends in itself, such as the 'dematerialization' of production (things will grow by themselves) or living longer healthy lives (vanishing the negative consequences of the aging population).

Need to put this one on my list...

Geopolitical consequences of energy trends

Interesting interview with energy expert Daniel Yergin. According to him energy industry doesn't move quickly, so oil and coal will likely still dominate in the future

Some major geopolitical trends that are driven by energy:
- with new oil sources there will be less import in Western hemisphere (less dependence on Middle East);
- china and US have common interest in stable oil, so as long as they see oil sources from a commercial perspective (instead of strategic) there will be no friction over energy between both countries;
- tension will increase in Middle East (especially due to Iran).

The unsuspected consequences of 'gendercide'

Researching on some demographic trends, I came across this concept of 'gendercide', the fact that boys are preferred over girls (that are often killed at birth) is leading to an overpopulation of males, which in itself might lead to some worrisome trends...

OK, the video beneath is -at the end- a call to participate in a petition, but I found the statistics in the first half of the video quite intriguing...


Join the Coalition to End Gendercide from All Girls Allowed on Vimeo.

Will humans ever transcend biology? What would be the impact on the world's sustainability?

I know the whole discussion about the coming 'singularity' will sound like sci-fi crap to many of you. The very idea that technology (computing power, nanotechnology etc) is evolving exponentially is highly speculative indeed -what on earth is evolving exponentially forever? Nothing is...

Nevertheless, the question is still interesting: what if? What if technological advancement increases to such a point where computers start to think for themselves, where humans are enhanced to a point where they become semi-robotic. Sure, things like creativity and inspiration are human prerogatives, but they can take different forms and be put at better use when combined with robotics and computational power?

The problem with this whole idea of 'singularity' is that it starts from current trends and technological possibilities, but then project them in the future at an exponential growth rate. By doing so it becomes a 'scenario', not a fact. But still, it's an interesting scenario to think about, especially for its consequences on the sustainability of our world (see second video).



...for a clear explanation of the idea of singularity (and its relationship with sustainability), spend some minutes on this video:

What education should offer in order to prepare our kids for the future...

Perhaps the most crucial question in education right now is what skills we need to teach our children in order to prepare them for the (uncertain) future. Education now still focuses on hard knowledge like math and languages, but with the rise in worldwide population -and the rise of the middle class in emerging markets- this is hardly a differentiator anymore.

In his brilliant speech Ken Robinson explains how this comes and, more importantly, why we need to focus on creativity in our educational system again. Something to watch out for when choosing the school for my kids...

And no doubt the best TED speech ever given...

Why we should integrate social media in education...

OK, the video beneath might look a bit partisan, but its core message still stands: many schools are still banning social media from classes, while an increasing amount of kids are using them to learn (among other things). With such discrepancy schools risk to loose their credibility -and relevance- in the eyes of GenY. Better think of ways to integrate social media smartly in education (without making it the aim of it! it's just a tool)...

The future of learning environments

Interesting perspectives on how the school environment will need to change with the emergence of new technologies and social media (they will need to change both because the new students will require it, but also because it makes learning more efficient)

• how to adapt the learning space to focus on students to become content creators and to learn by collaborating more with each other;
• how virtualization can enrich the learning experience;
• how to integrate mobility in the learning process...

Will dig a bit deeper in the future of education in coming days... hugely interesting and vital field...

Bridging the digital divide in Africa, some examples

Doing some research on 'bridging the digital divide' for a case study on Youbridge, I stumbled across some interesting examples of initiatives in Africa.

This 78 year old woman is going from town to town with her laptop, teaching women about health and agricultural issues:



Rwanda is really making some giant leaps in digitizing education, and it shows that Nicholas Negroponte's vision of 'one laptop per child' is actually feasible:



...but this also made me think about the notion of 'reverse digital divide', where developing nations actually embrace new technologies much faster and much more enthusiastically than developed  countries.

This notion was also part of the conclusions of a recent PWC survey of global CEO's, where the reverse digital divide took a prominent place. According to this survey:

• Two-thirds of executives in emerging markets believe that mobile devices will become the standard for web applications over the next five years, compared with only one-half of execs in advanced economies. 
• Two-thirds of emerging market executives expect businesses to embrace social media and networking; just one-third of their industrial-market counterparts share this view.

The future of professional organizations...

Slides from my keynote presentation at Cisco Plus in Luxembourg, March 2012.
'The extreme future of professional organizations... what does it mean for your business?'

'The future of professional organizations' Cisco Plus keynote -Luxembourg

View more presentations from Frederic De Meyer

The shopping experience in 2019

...according to Microsoft this is the way we'll do our shopping a couple of years from now. Certainly looks more efficient -I for one would appreciate some help to get the most efficient route through the mall in order to have all my shopping done at once.

But this is all about efficiency, surely there must be more disruptive ways our shopping experience will evolve in the near future?

Are we heading to a new 'Renaissance' ?

Not sure I fully grasp the notion of 'higher frequency' Patricia is talking about here, but her central theme -whether we are heading towards a new age of renaissance- is quite interesting. Fact is that we have no true 'new story' to live to right now. We're stuck in crises and doubts, uncertain about the near future and uncomfortable with the far future. Well, that was exactly the state of humanity before the Italian renaissance a couple of centuries ago.

The true nature of this 'new story' is impossible to assess, obviously, but according to Patricia it will have certain characteristics like 'emotional truth', higher purpose (apparently are brains are being re-wired to become more social?), compassion and 'live' experience.

Sounds wonderful, but as a skeptic I need to ask myself how much of this is wishful thinking and how much is evidence based. I probably need to dig a bit deeper into her research... (my good, another book on my list...)

Some surprising trends in health care

Looks like I'm going to work closely with some pharma and health-care companies in the near future. So it's a good time to dig deeper in some of the trends affecting this industry (see my presentation at the European Pharma CI conference for an overview of all the trends I currently see in this sector).

Let's start with some TED talks, always a good start...

• Printing a human liver -well, we're pretty close to it ('a couple of years', as said in the disclaimer)... and for those of you who are concerned about the body rejecting a printed liver: don't forget that this one is made by your own cells !

• Crowdsourcing could help with very simple things... like mapping local difilibrators. Simple enough to make it work: 

• And here's some surprising use of social networks... to predict epidemics in a very early stage:

The largest human migration in history...

Interestingly, the largest migration in human history is not between countries or regions, but within China. People living in rural areas migrate en masse to urban areas, with some good sides (income spread reduces somewhat) and some bad (families torn apart). Some provinces in China now equal the economies of Austria and Switzerland...

Interesting stuff:

Trends affecting the pharma and biotech sector, how companies can prepare for them

I had the chance to present at the European Pharma Competitive Intelligence summit in Zurich last week, in my capacity as senior investigator at competitive intelligence experts I.S.I.S. Global. Interesting group of people and highly interactive session. Here's the slides of the presentation, which had 2 major objectives:

• discuss trends affecting the pharma & biotech industry in the next 5-10 years;
• show how CI departments can use such megatrends assessments to increase their strategic relevance within their organization.

Using megatrend assessments in pharma in order to raise the relevance of the CI department within your organization

View more presentations from Frederic De Meyer

Is economic growth the only measure of future well being?

I am not alone in thinking one of the causes of the current crises (financial, government debt and recession) is at least partially due to our focus on 'economic growth' as an indicator of how well we -as 'nations', companies and persons- will improve and be able to develop in the future.

People more intelligent than I have offered alternatives to 'GDP' (Gross Domestic Product, or the economic value created by a nation in a specific timeframe). Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz even got commissioned by French president Sarcozy to write a report on potential alternatives. With no obvious results, since we're still panicking whenever a decline in economic growth (a recession) is at our door.

In a recent report the World Economic Forum goes a bit more practical, and proposes to swap the notion of economic growth with a measurable notion of 'well being' -which it defines as a mixture of effective work, families and communities, each of these containing opportunities we might not be fully aware of.

Interesting document:

Bytheway, here is a summary of Stiglitz' recommendations for a new way of measuring growth: