The melting of the arctic ice is going much more rapidly than predicted -some scientists expect all ice to have disappeared by 2040. Bad news for the arctic (and perhaps global) ecosystem, good news for the economy: this would open new -shorter- navigation routes (in itself bad news for the economies of the South), and new oil wells will unravel (not sure if I like that one).
Thing is, this trend is self-feeding: the more territories become ice-free, the more human activity will establish in them, which in turn will lead to more melting of surrounding ice. From what I read this trend is already over the point of no-return.
But, more crucial, is its impact on geopolitical balances. The 6 countries at the border of the arctic (Russia, US, Canada, Norway, Iceland and Denmark-Greenland) will obviously try to put their hands on these 'new' territories, and China is trying hard to raise its presence in some of these regions as well. Russia is undoubtedly the best positioned right now (it has the highest level of activity in the region already), but the stakes are so high that all countries concerned are raising their attention to the region.
No doubt this will reshuffle some geopolitical cards, but the ultimate outcome is hard to predict...
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