The future buildings, some examples of floating architectures...

Some fascinating examples of how 'floating building' could look like in the future... sure there's some extravagant hotel or cruise-ship concepts in there, but some other could offer concrete solutions to the challenges humanity might face in the future...

My favorite? The floating village that shelters 50,000 inhabitants and is completely self-reliant...
what's yours?

10 future technologies that already exist...

Short video of some of the technologies that will likely roll out in the coming years (from an interesting Youtube site alltime10s).

• perhaps unsurprisingly most of the technology breakthrough are in the health care sector (printing of human parts, chip implant controlled human spare parts, retinal implants, ...)
• robotics (this time in the form of... a dog... well, why not?)
• wireless power (the idea still sounds freaky to me)
• hologram TV (still need special glasses though)

...nice collection altogether, though far from complete ;-)

(does anyone understand #4 ?)

Top reasons why businesses are adopting sustainable practices

Some interesting findings in this years' executive survey on how and why companies integrate sustainability practices in their short and long-term strategy. The most notable conclusion is that 'reputation management' is not the most cited reason for sustainable practices anymore -the top reason now is 'improving operational efficiency and lowering costs', which jumped 14 percent as the most mentioned reason. Other reasons score quite high as well: alignment with the companies business goals, developing new opportunities or retaining and motivating employees, for instance.

"In a related opinion piece, “Putting it into practice,” at the end of this survey, the authors argue that more businesses will have to take a long-term strategic view of the issue by identifying and pursuing sustainability opportunities that hold the highest value potential."

Click here to access the survey report (after free registration on McKinsey Quarterly)

How future water and food shortage are linked

I stumbled across this presentation while doing some research on (potential) future food shortages. Obviously both water and food shortage are linked, although strangely enough I never made this connection until I saw this presentation.

To me, food shortage (and price volatility due to this) was going to intensify because of four factors:

• climatic change (more severe weather with failed harvests as a result);
• biofuels (using increasing portions of farming land);
• rising middle class in emerging markets (with rising demand for some 'upscale' food products);
• the rising world population (going to 9 billion soon).

As this presentation shows, I should add water shortage to the list... But what it also shows is that this doesn't have to lead to a dramatic outcome. Better -more rational- water management should not even be so hard to develop; ensuring food for 9 billion people is a challenge, but not unfeasible to respond to...

Well worth having a look:

Trends And Scenarios In Agricultural Development - Colin Chartres - International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

View more presentations from International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

How people's attitude towards their health is changing, and how this affects the health care providers

Excellent presentation from one of my favorite future watcher at TED Brussels this week... Peter Hinssen sheds his light on the major influences that are currently changing the healthcare sector -probably for good:

- averages won't work anymore - personalization is key
- there is an enormous push to compute and quantify health (how healthy are you exactly?)
- health is not a product anymore, it's a service (people get pro-active about their health)
- health (and sickness) becomes a subject of communities...

bottom line: people are taking ownership of their health, the health care providers better adapt to that...

fascinating talk:

The economic consequences of global migration

Interesting interview with Giovanni Peri, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis, discussing the economic impacts of global migration and human mobility. He sees 3 major pressures for increasing migration:

• wage differential (attractiveness of bigger money in West);
• demographics (more young people en developing countries);
• economic (supply of less educated workforce)

In a strange way, Giovanni argues that new migrants in fact elevate the local workforce's work level. At least in the US, that is, where migrants are more naturally embedded in the culture. It works much less in Europe which has a more rigid market structure. Bottom line, according to him, is that more international flexibility would benefit both the receiving countries and the migrants themselves.


Interesting indeed, and according to me an increasing global mobility it is almost inevitable -not only for the forces explained by Giovanni, but also due to new forms of migration such as ecological migration or even young people from the developed world moving to emerging countries (where in time working conditions will be better).

How well is your company prepared for the future? ... and your competitors?

How confident are you that your company will survive the next decades? …

and your competitors? 

Admittedly, these are tough questions. At first they might even look like impossible to answer. After all, is the future not a big unknown?

Not necessarily… there are some things we can be pretty sure of. The combination of the ageing population and the coming of GenY workers will worsen the talent gap, for instance. The climate is definitely changing and, even if there’s discussion on how dramatic the change will prove to be, it will certainly require companies to adapt. There are indeed a couple of things we can be certain of for the next two decades.

So the big question is: are you prepared for this future? And are your competitors better prepared than you?

Knowing this is crucial the ensure your competitiveness in the (near) future. And it’s relatively easy to build such a benchmark:

• Take +/- 20 metrics around a couple of megatrends themes;
• Look for evidence of yourself or your competitors in how companies are preparing (if at all) for these issues;
• Put some scoring together and build recommendations. 

The benchmark we developed at the Institute for Future Insights, for instance, contains 24 metrics grouped around 6 topics:

Scoring how well you and your competitors are doing in these fields can be based on publicly available information of these companies. It is pretty time- consuming, but highly rewarding: the conclusions that can be drawn from this exercise for your future strategy are quite substantial. For instance, you could map out the strengths and weaknesses of your company in comparison to your competitors in a number of areas:

As said, this is an easy but time consuming exercise. But it leads to very practical, concrete recommendations. Go through this sample report to find out:

Future Readiness Benchmark sample report

View more documents from Frederic De Meyer

If you need some help building the benchmark for your company or performing it altogether (which guarantees a neutral look at the information at hand), feel free to contact me.

How global migration patterns will evolve in the future

It's intriguing to think about future migration patterns. There are a couple of forces playing, each of them with a different, somewhat contradictory outcome, which makes any prediction on how it will eventually turn out painful:

• ecological migration: as more and more territories will suffer from drought and -likely- more severe weather conditions, new forms of migration will emerge -likely from the center to the North and/or South;
• economic migration: the form we now know -from poorer to richer countries-, will likely be supplemented by a now form: Western youngsters migrating to countries with higher growth (emerging countries) in search of better working conditions, more growth prospects or even -in term- better education;
• diaspora returning to country of origin... something now happening with Indian immigrants, but just imagine what this would lead to for China (if further democratization materializes, for instance).

...this would give a completely different picture than the current status, nicely shown in the graph of The Economist beneath...

(From The Economist) MORE Chinese people live outside mainland China than French people live in France, with some to be found in almost every country. Some 22m ethnic Indians are scattered across every continent. Diasporas have been a part of the world for millennia. But today their size (if migrants were a nation, they would be the world’s fifth-largest) and the ease of staying in touch with those at home are making them matter much more. No other social networks offer the same global reach—and shrewd firms are taking notice.

The trade-off between biofuel and food production

I was pretty surprised to find out that 40% of the corn production in the US is used to produce ethanol (as an alternative for oil). Projected at a worldwide level this would cause major disruptions on the food market.

Surely this is happening already if you look at the price evolution of some of the food resources. In the example of corn, one can clearly see how the monthly price (per metric ton) is increasingly volatile since 2007:

No doubt it's a difficult trade off... higher food prices would put plenty of people in difficulty, but biofuels are almost inevitable as we will reach peak oil somewhere in the next decade (well, this is debatable). A big challenge for the years to come, and one with far-reaching consuequences...

The future of... Europe

Some twenty years ago -at the start of my career- I did a traineeship at the European Council of Ministers. The European construction by then was all about creating a single economic market. There were no talks yet of the Euro, but their was a monetary stability pact with some level of political integration, as embodied in the painfully adopted Maastricht Treaty. The thing is, back then there was still quite some excitement about what Europe tried to move into (even if you were against it).

Despite a couple of crises, the model was not put to the test so far. Europe is still a relatively well functioning single market, and in some areas it even speaks with a single voice to the outer world (which I see as a sign of political integration). Surely, the excitement has gone, but good sense dictated that the European construction was all in all a good thing.

The current crisis is changing even this latest statement. Even rational people are building arguments to defend the deconstruction of Europe -not only of the Euro. The question 'where is Europe heading' now turns into 'does Europe has a future?'.

There are different scenario's at hand. The editor of The Economist in the video beneath seems to think Europe will 'muddle on' (read: solve small problems piece by piece, without overall grand vision or direction). Possible. My feeling however is that the second scenario, where just a handful of countries would retract and build a more integrated zone, seems at least as likely and -in my eyes- more preferable. After all, it's only when you provide a concrete example of what you try to achieve, that you will motivate other countries to change in order to join the club. In a way, that's how the European construction started, so maybe that's how it could reinvent itself as well...

Megatrends and strategy execution (#4): how to deal with the long term when short term is tough?

For the third week in a row, strategy execution expert Jeroen De Flander sheds his light on how companies need to put more focus on strategy execution in order to exceed in the long run. This week, Jeroen explains what the impact of the current recession should be on strategy overall and, no doubt more importantly, strategy execution:

(by Jeroen De Flander)

Strategy execution in the aftermath of the financial crisis

Companies who haven’t prepared may survive the recession only to find themselves overtaken by their competitors as the economy gets back to normal. The question is: “How do I prepare my organization for recovery?”

The Performance Management Research Platform from Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School andthe performance factory joined forces to find an answer to that question. I will highlight the conclusions in three articles. You can download the complete research report for free.

A NEW WORLD
At some point in time, each crisis will come to an end. Forgotten strategic topics will pop up on the radar screen again. And you will probably agree that it won’t be business as usual as the world around us has changed dramatically in times of crisis.

YOUR STRATEGY REVIEW NEEDS A PUNCH
Your strategy review – the kick-start of every thorough budget process − needs an extra punch. You want − and probably need − that something extra that helps you and your company digest the changed environment and prepare for a strong recovery. The classical elements of a sound strategy review (like a sound analysis and scenario planning) remain the basis − but that’s not enough. You need to dig deeper into existing analysis areas and be creative by looking at others.
So, here’s a list of 8 dynamics you should integrate into your upcoming strategy review process. Some build on classical strategy analysis and will hold no surprises for you; others are probably new analysis areas and challenge you to look beyond the obvious.

1. Economic dynamics
This is the obvious one. The one you hear on the news every day. The one you most probably know best and have integrated already. This is all about macro indicators telling us what happened in the past, while economists (try to) predict what is going to happen and politicians try to stabilise the market. These dynamics should definitely be included, but only in your basis as you start. Don’t limit yourself to listening to what others write or say, but dig in. What does it really mean? How acute is the danger (think of the Mexican flu)? What does it mean for my sector, for my company?

2. People dynamics
It’s impossible to win without the right people. So ask yourself the following questions: Who’s still in your company? Are they going to stay, or are they just waiting for the right moment to leave? As you know, the job market follows a pattern different from that of the economy − so, when do you expect the job market to pick up again?

3. Budget dynamics
How fast can we make budget changes? An interesting question, when you know that the 2011 budget has been made in the midst of one of the largest economic crises of all time. Most probably, your – and your colleagues’ – current budget ideas are coloured strongly by the current crisis and are very cost-driven. But watch out for the boomerang! If the financial climate improves, you might be stuck with an inflexible budget. So, look at the budget dynamics in your company and evaluate the time needed to shift gears when necessary.

4. Industry dynamics
Some of your competitors won’t survive the crisis. Others will, but they will definitely look different. They might have had an extreme makeover. And there will be new players on the market − competitors, suppliers, and customers too. In order words, business won’t be as usual. You’ll need to find out how the crisis has affected − and will continue to affect − the dynamics in your industry with all the different players involved: from customers and private and public investors, to suppliers and partners, to existing and new competitors. KPMG research involving 852 companies in 29 countries indicates that about 50% of the companies are changing – or planning to change − their business model (reported in De Tijd, 3 June 2009). Find out why changes have occurred in your industry, predict what is going to change, and see how all this can be played to your advantage.

5. Customer dynamics
You were well aware of your customers’ needs before the crisis. But do you still know what they are today? Chances are that the difficult economic climate has altered your customers’ ‘needs’, or loyalty, dramatically. So, don’t rely on past research − do your homework. You might be very surprised by the results.

6. Decision dynamics
The crisis has scared many executives. They have become hyper-vigilant and avoid taking risks. Long-term decisions are postponed until things stabilise. Be bold and put this on the table. We are not saying that you need to take unnecessary risks. You might want to be more careful about certain decisions than you were before − but you don’t want to become paralyzed either. Entrepreneurship always goes hand in hand with a healthy dose of risk. Each executive team should put this (RSL: what is “this” referring to?) foremost on the agenda.

7. Execution dynamics
Take into account what you can do. Restructuring has a negative impact on morale and impacts your change capacity as well. Good people have left or may be leaving soon. The amount of stress your remaining managers are experiencing is very high. Proper supporting processes might be at risk. We will touch upon this in more detail in other articles. The key take-away is: a previously approved strategy could very well be less realistic today, due to reduced execution capacity in your organisation. It’s crucial to take this into account now!

8. Leadership dynamics
Last but not least, you should examine the captains on your ship. How well did they perform during this extreme crisis situation? Any signs of burn-out? Is their style suitable to guiding the company through the recovery period?

Targeting the rising middle class in emerging markets, some caution to consider

One of the most spectacular megatrend is undoubtedly the rising middle class in the emerging markets. In China and India for instance, each year the life standards of tens of millions of people are rising to levels where they can afford to spend money on other things than just vital products.

This constitutes a very clear and defined opportunity for plenty of (Western) companies. The market for certain products is growing considerably, simply because of this growth. However, as the case of Tata's Nano car shows (amongst other examples), things are not that simple.

Laurie Duthie from the University of Los Angeles has been studying the middle classes of China extensively. Here's some of her advise advise for those targeting the rising middle classes as a market:

• income is not the same as spending power, so consider closely which sub-segments you are covering;
• look at who these middle classes are benchmarking their spending patterns to (it's mostly not to the Western world's middle class);
• the (self-)perception of middle classes can vary hugely dependent on country, profession, etc.;
• Financial Services and Education should have the biggest opportunity.

Interesting stuff:

Social media trends in 2012

Some interesting gathering of the main current social media trends from the CEO of Mashable, Peter Cashmore. The most interesting takes as far as I'm concerned:

• Touch
• News aggregation apps;
• TV everywhere;
• Social gestures;
• Second screen experience...

Nothing too revolutionary, after all he's talking about next year! But an interesting overview of all the new stuff coming ahead:

What drives businesses to become more social?

I've written a lot on social businesses and shared value so far, mostly from the view that these business practices are either pushed by the environment or driven by profitable opportunities.

Probably, what I missed so far is that social business can come from a genuine will or 'mission' of business leaders. Well, that would be new in business world, but according to Tonya Surman from the Center for Social Innovation, it happens more and more often. Regardless of the reason, the good thing is that it happens.

Bytheway, Tonya's view ties in pretty well with the message in my previous post stating that social awareness and engagement will be a key skill for future business leaders. I urgently need to gather more examples of companies who put social value at the core of their strategy...

Global trends and how business leaders should adapt to them

Interesting interview with Dominic Barton, Managing Director, McKinsey & Company at the occasion of IBM's leadership forum. In the first 3 minutes Dominic discusses why emerging markets other than China and India should be on every international business' agenda as well. Poland has a mass of well educated talent, Ethiopia is the fastest growing economy on earth, Indonesia is a massive market with a stable government, ... all fair points.


But the second part of the interview is more interesting. In it, Dominic sheds his light on how business leaders should adapt to the 'new normal' in order to be successful. A couple of notes I took:

• Adaptability will become a key leadership skill - learning to work with different cultures;
• Successful careers will be characterized by lifelong learning;independent of age or skills already acquired;
• Successful leaders will increasingly be involved in the community they do business in - think of social innovation and entrepreneurship;
• 'do not manage your image', just be yourself... 

Megatrends and strategy execution (#3): 9 reasons why strategy execution often fails

This is the second article of the series of posts by strategy execution expert Jeroen De Flander. Given his first-hand experience in assisting companies in implementing strategies, Jeroen is very well placed to see why and how good strategies sometimes lead to poor results due to ineffective implementation. In this post, he highlights 9 primary reasons why companies fail at strategy execution.

(guest post by Jeroen De Flander)


The Strategy Execution process is your highway to performance. To be more precise, you should picture your Strategy Execution process not as a single street but as a network of unique roads – smaller and larger ones –all interlinked together. And the roads carry names like ‘strategy review process’, ‘initiative management process’, ‘coaching process’, ‘individual objective setting process’ and so on. And all of these processes, and the interaction between them, are vital to your execution success.


Some facts & figures

Here are 2 striking results. Almost 20 percent of all managers – the key people involved – cannot explain the implementation process and 25 percent believe that their execution job is made more difficult due to the complexity of the processes.

To join the Strategy Execution elite – the best-in-class – organisations need to overcome the following 9 bottlenecks:

There is too much complexity.

Managers don’t understand the process.

Clear ownership is lacking.

The process and improvement actions are not visible on the executive radar.

Managers fear proposing, and making, changes.

The process isn’t adapted to the needs of the organisation.

The quality of the process isn’t measured.

One part of the process gets all of the attention, and others none.

It’s too expensive

The future of... personal productivity

Chances are that you have seen this video already, but for those who didn't: here's a very strong vision of where personal productivity tools might lead us a couple of years from now. It appears to be from Microsoft, though its certainly not loaded with commercials for its products; only the vision prevails.

Anyhow, one question that increasingly keeps me busy is the future of productivity (in a macro-economic sense): will robots take over human activity? can every human activity eventually be performed by machines? will automation be applied to critical decision-taking? will this worsen the income divide between those with high value jobs (those designing the robots, for instance) and low value ones (those maintaining the robots, for instance)?

Actually, the vision of Microsoft in this video shows people still working very much like the past decade, they still have to make the same decisions and working on are working on pretty much the same things, only more efficiently. This might be one potential scenario -even a likely one in my eyes- but certainly not the only one... It's a nice one nevertheless: