Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Why humans are addicted to predictions that (almost) always prove to be wrong

Haven't read Dan's book yet ('Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better', it's on my list), but in the meantime it's interesting to hear the author talk about it. The book is about why humans are so desperately in need of predictions, even if most of them never come true. In fact, it's even relatively insane to even listen to 'experts' talking about the future...

But wait a minute... Is this not what I try to do when looking at megatrends? Well, yes and no... to say it in the words of management guru Peter Drucker: “The trends that I have described are not forecasts [...]; they are, if you will, conclusions. Everything discussed here has already happened; it is only the full impacts that are still to come”. In that way I stay far clear of any 'prediction', although, since I'm a human after all, I can't completely omit them...




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