A brilliant case for personalized medicines

Most of current medicines don't work, simply because they're not adapted to your specific DNA. With the declining cost of profiling your genome, however, drugs in the future will be tailor-made to your specific needs. According to Mehmet Oz, this would enable us to treat diseases like Alzheimer well in advance.

But perhaps the most striking statement is that we shouldn't expect the health care sector, nor the government, to make this happen. This revolution should be made from within our homes...

A fascinating discussion:

Are big corporations loosing their appeal for young innovative talents?

I recently published my second book, a study of young Flemish entrepreneurs and what every business can learn from them. For obvious reasons the book will only appear in Dutch. As a futurist, I was particularly interested in what these young entrepreneurs had in common. After all, these youngsters will partially define how the business environment will look like five to ten years from now (‘if you want to know the future, look at your children’, remember?).

Did they have the same education? Nope. Did they have their parents as role models of entrepreneurship? Nope. Did they have some particular experience abroad? Nope.

Then I checked their professional experience, and it’s there that I found something quite remarkable.

Let me start with the couple of more experienced entrepreneurs that advised me while writing the book. What you see on the graph beneath is the number of years they spent as full-time employee, as entrepreneur or as a mixture of both, starting from the end of their studies:

This picture shouldn’t be too surprising. The ‘older’ generation of entrepreneurs started by building an experience of 8-12 years in a traditional company, and then have a radical break for one reason or another, to become full-time entrepreneurs.

Let’s compare this with the younger generation of entrepreneurs that I cover in the book. Strangely enough, I had to make a distinction between those that are older than 30 years, and those younger. Let’s start with those that are older than 30:

What we see is that these youngsters start with their own initiative much earlier than the more experienced entrepreneurs, but they do this in combination with a ‘traditional’ job of some kind. Perhaps they start to have a family and for that they’re more risk-averse.

But how different is this from the entrepreneurs younger than 30!

These youngsters start immediately with their own thing. Sometimes in combination with a ‘traditional’ job, which they leave very soon in order to build their own company!

There’s plenty of explanations to this, of course: entry-level for web startups is lower than ever; virtually everyone has access to the global market nowadays; there’s plenty of programs to stimulate entrepreneurship at high-school, etc.

An extra wildcard from my side, based on all the discussions I had with these young entrepreneurs: working within a big established firm has lost a bit of its sex appeal. There’s no glory anymore in building a career in a traditional company.

This obviously poses a serious threat to traditional companies. I’m not saying every youngster will build his startup instead of joining a company. What I’m saying is that the most brilliant ones, the most innovative ones, will not hesitate to do so –at least not as long as their older peers did. Mix this with the changing needs and wishes of Generation Y employees, and upcoming talent gap which we start to experience in some areas already, and you start to have a sense of the magnitude of the challenge.

There’s plenty of things companies can do in order to counter this trend. The most important one is to (re)introduce a spirit of entrepreneurship in the company. It’s easier said than done, so stay tuned on this blog for some advise on this.

(oh, and for my Flemish-speaking readers, the book is now available at my publisher Die Keure)

The problem with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

There's a lot of debate on whether CCS is a valuable instrument to counter climate change. In my eyes, it could on the short term, but on the other hand: if the only answer we 'intelligent' beings can give to a problem is to store it under the ground, I would start to doubt our 'intelligence'.

It could however solve the issue in short term. Too bad the investments in CCS plant appeared to have stopped everywhere except in Norway, due to the 'high cost' of these solutions -after all we're in a crisis. Guess the 'high cost' doesn't factor in the costs of a declining environment...

36 Rules of social media

Even if social media is just at the verge & will undoubtedly be subject to many, many changes in the next decades, it's still worthy to learn how to cope with it today... Here's the best overview I've found so far on what to do (and not to do) with social media:

Source: dr4ward.com via DR4WARD on Pinterest

The dirty secrets of clean energy and the future of environmentalism

I must admit it: I am a techno-optimist with regards of climate change issues. Or at least I was, before reading ‘Green Illusions’ by Ozzy Zehner. In the first half of the book, Ozzy breaks down any argument that ‘green’ energy technologies could help to save the planet…

Solar? Inefficient, dirty in making, dirty in cleaning (of which it needs a lot in the best locations: deserts), dirtier still at the end of life.
Wind? Unpredictable, bound to a limited number of (remote) locations, generates loads of CO2 in the production process.
Biofuels? Pollutes water, and ethanol is quite dirty and non-renewable.
Clean Coal? A hoax! Hydropower? A cause for geopolitical tensions. Geothermal? Causes earthquakes.

It’s not that Ozzy is in denial of the challenges ahead, quite the contrary. But he arguments that producing more energy, even if it’s alternative and green(er), brings us nowhere: “Alternative energy production expands energy supply, placing downwards pressure on prices, which spurs demand, entrenches energy-intensive modes of living’. Ultimately, green energy drives demand for dirty energy.

Makes sense, which is probably why in California energy providers earn more money the less their customer spend energy! The motivation might not be to save the planet, but this kind of decoupling brings us a far way nevertheless…

In the second part of the book Ozzy offers his views on what else can make our future more sustainable, convincingly arguing that environmentalists should focus on such issues rather than on so-called ‘green’ energies.

Some are a bit surprising, for instance when he makes a strong case for the support of women rights, which through multiple effects would benefit a greener future. Some are quite rational: both the challenges and the solutions lie in an different conception and management of our cities. Some got me laughing: making cities more bicycle-friendly is something most European towns already heavily invested in. Some of the remarks and ideas in the book are clearly meant for an American audience.

I love books that shake preconceived assumptions. This one is certainly doing that, and offers some valuable ideas on how to think differently. ‘The only clean energy is: less energy’!



Check out my previous book reviews:

• "The shift" Lynda Gratton
• "The future of work" Thomas Malone
• "Making globalization work" Joseph Stiglitz
• "2030 -Technologies that will change the world" Van Santen, Khoe, Vermeer
• "What Technology wants" David Kelly
• "Crowdsourcing" Jeff Howe
• "The next big thing" William Higham
• "Future Files" Richard Watson
• "Future savvy" Adam Gordon
• "Futurewise" Patrick Dixon
• "Ecological intelligence" Daniel Goleman

How companies can benefit from the growth of cities in emerging markets

In a fascinating report by McKinsey&Company, they advice global companies to refocus their attention to cities rather than (emerging) countries. The growing cities in emerging are creating specific opportunities for all sorts of industries. Some examples, like water provision in Mumbai or babyfood and diapers in Dar Es Alaam, are provided in the slideshow.

Makes sense, but what intrigued me most were the statistics behind this conclusion:

• by 2025, half of global economic growth will come from 440 cities in emerging markets;
• by 2025, 440 emerging market cities will have more households with incomes of $20.000 or above than will the cities in developed economies;
• the contribution of the cities to economic growth of the country will vary from 94% (in China) to 70% in sub-saharan Africa (by comparison, it will be 64% in Europe;
• and last but not least, only 20% of executives are making location decisions at city level... 

Plenty of opportunities ahead... Read more or download the report here.

'Intrapreneurs', a new function in corporate life?

Is it just a a new buzz, or is there something more fundamental going on? Fact is that the use of the term ‘intrapreneur’ has grown rapidly past two years. You know: employees whose mission it is to create little start-ups within established companies – or at least use start-up techniques to implement new ideas within their companies.

However, the skepticism with which intrapreneurs are received by ‘true’ entrepreneurs makes some sense. Their biggest arguments:

• True entrepreneurs take true financials risks. In comparison, salaried intrapreneurs are bathing in luxurious security. 
• True entrepreneurs built their start-ups themselves, stone by stone. Intrapreneurs can rely on the services of their company for virtually all overhead tasks. 
• >True entrepreneurs are driven by their passion, their mission. Since the work of intrapreneurs will ultimately benefit their employer, their drive would be much less.

All valid arguments. But let’s say you’re 28. You have a couple of years of experience in the corporate world, but you’re eager to build your own thing. Develop your own idea from a to z. Take full responsibility for the problems that might arise. Solve them all by yourself. Fight to survive, but ultimately reap the full and juicy fruit of the success that will inevitably come.

On the other side: you have one or two kids that are still in an expensive daycare. You just built the house of your dream –with an expensive mortgage. You enjoy having two or three weeks of holiday to discover exotic places. You have some hobbies that are not necessarily expensive, but that require some investments.

So you have the choice: either you (1) repress your entrepreneurial dreams, work hard from 9 to 5 and try to have a fulfilling life next to it (that’s so generation babyboomer), or (2) you try to combine things and test your ideas in your free hours, or even within your company (that’s so genX), or (3) you take the risk and chase your dream (that’s so… ehm…).

Is there a middle way? Well, yes: become an intrapreneur. Let’s be honest, this is just a fresh term for something that exists since modern corporations were born. Any innovative project that was launched and managed by an employee could be seen as an act of intrapreneurship. Nevertheless, it diserves a term on its own, especially now given the vital importance of innovation in corporate life nowadays. In a time where new business models redesign complete markets you’d better be pro-active and redesign it yourself. And therefore you need… yes: intrapreneurs.

How companies should adapt their culture to reap the benefits of social media

What is the true impact of the emergence of social media on companies? The question might sound trivial nowadays. Aren’t virtually all companies –at least the public ones- ‘present’ on social media, in one form or another? They probably are. But are they getting the maximum out of this ‘presence’? In other words: do they use social media as a strategic tool rather than a tactical one?

In his latest book, Steven Van Belleghem calls companies making strategic use of social media the ‘Conversation companies’. Rarely has a business author chosen a better word to express his idea: successfully using social media means leading conversations with whomever is talking about you, it’s about re-actively AND pro-actively engaging with your audience. Companies all too often limit their social media presence to sending company updates (hoping that nobody will reply) or (if they’re a little more sophisticated) replying to complaints and negative comments.

These companies are dealing with a massive amount of what Steven calls ‘unused conversation potential’. Use this potential fully, and you’ll reap the benefits of loyal fans of your brands.

The caveat? You’ll need to have a very close look at your company’s culture, and most probably adapt it. That’s easier said than done, but it’s not impossible. Steven’s book ‘the conversation company’ provides a concrete –and feasible- roadmap on how to do this. With a massive amount of case studies to make his point(s).

How strange however that Steven first wrote a book about ‘The Conversation Manager’ before writing ‘The conversation company’: I can’t imagine any company appointing a conversation manager before they turned into a conversation company. Nevertheless, Steven’s message is pressing: companies that don’t take these conversations seriously face the risk of being left behind. Perhaps for good.

A crucial read !

The future of shopping

A preview of the (near) future customer experience, according to BlackBerry... what's striking is that online tools are being integrated into the 'real life' experience, they don't replace it...

Is the 'Bring your own device' trend viable for businesses?

It almost sounds like a good deal for everyone: bring your own devices (BYOD) to work for professional reasons. For employers obviously this reduces some costs (but increases some risks at the same time), while employees would be able to work with the devices that they are familiar with -and that are often much more
performant than the devices they receive from their employer (never believed the latter argument until I started working on my own...).

But is it real? According to research company IDC, currently 41% of the devices used at work are owned by the employees, and this will rise to 55% by 2015. I guess the smart phones take a lion share of that. More intriguing is the idea to use personal apps for professional use (or, at least, have the employer let you choose which apps you want to use).

One step closer to the virtual company... but do you think that's a good thing?

3 megatrends infographic: personal productivity, speed and the clash between tech and real world

Very insightful infograph by Launchcapital - who unfortunately don't have a Facebook or Twitter share functionality, so I'll have to share it this way... all credit goes to them, however, this is nicely thought-provoking stuff - although limited to 3 areas:

• personal productivity
• the clash between tech and real world
• the impact of speed

A holistic approach to global sustainability

Interesting perspective at the World Economic Forum's idea lab. The argument of Johan Rockstrom is that the earth's sustainability level is now in a 'danger zone', but the solution to it can only be holistic, involving many other areas than just global warming or the ozon layer... and, according to Johan, it can be done even with an open economy.

Everything is connected, and hence the solution to the sustainability challenge can only be found through the willingness of global leaders...

Not sure if this last thought makes me optimistic though...

How MORE cattle reverses global warming...

We all know cows are extremely polluting, right? Less of them is good for the planet, right?

Well, think again... Seth Itskan argues we need more of them ! Cattle is actually a solution to global warming, and one that takes local farmers at the forefront of this solution.

or how conventional thinking is not always the right thinking:

The (future) fight for the arctic region...

The melting of the arctic ice is going much more rapidly than predicted -some scientists expect all ice to have disappeared by 2040. Bad news for the arctic (and perhaps global) ecosystem, good news for the economy: this would open new -shorter- navigation routes (in itself bad news for the economies of the South), and new oil wells will unravel (not sure if I like that one).

Thing is, this trend is self-feeding: the more territories become ice-free, the more human activity will establish in them, which in turn will lead to more melting of surrounding ice. From what I read this trend is already over the point of no-return.

But, more crucial, is its impact on geopolitical balances. The 6 countries at the border of the arctic (Russia, US, Canada, Norway, Iceland and Denmark-Greenland) will obviously try to put their hands on these 'new' territories, and China is trying hard to raise its presence in some of these regions as well. Russia is undoubtedly the best positioned right now (it has the highest level of activity in the region already), but the stakes are so high that all countries concerned are raising their attention to the region.

No doubt this will reshuffle some geopolitical cards, but the ultimate outcome is hard to predict...

Augmented reality devices getting mainstream

The future is 'augmented', especially if it's seen through ultra-slim glasses... I'm not necessarily in favor or against it, just wondering whether I can imagine any application that will make me want any of these...  The automatic translator sounds useful enough:

The future of business organizations, can every function be virtualized?

Last couple of weeks I’ve been giving a number of speeches about the future of business organizations. At the start of the talk I ask the question whether one can imagine a completely ‘virtualized company’, in other words: ‘could a company of, say, 40B$ turnover be managed and operated by one single person?’

Well, could it?

In each of the corporate divisions we can actually see some trends emerge that, if taken to the extreme, would signify a complete virtualization of this function;

• R&D? think about what effects open innovation, open sourcing or consumer driven innovation would have…
• Manufacturing? just imagine if every family or community would own a 3D printer… not at all science fiction
• Marketing? aren’t trends like crowdsourcing and social buying making this function a bit irrelevant?
• IT? think of the consequences of DIY technology, cloud and consumerization…

And so on.

But obviously, the future is rarely extreme. What all these trends really imply is that the world increasingly becomes part of your operations, and hence it is the nature of all these divisions’ responsibilities and competencies. Grossly put the near future looks like this:

The full slide-deck is now available on slideshare!

Don’t hesitate to contact me to have this presentation ‘live’ for your team, company or industry event !

Tips & tricks to use megatrends for strategic innovation #5/5: 'consider anti-trends'

This might sound counter-intuitive, but some trends can lead to counter-movements. This obviously doesn't apply to all trends: however hard you try to oppose ageing population, I don't see how exactly you would succeed at it. But take another example: the digitization of society -the fact that we're increasingly 'connected', always and everywhere. It's not so absurd to think that an increasing amount of people will choose to opt out of technology? Question then is: does this represent an opportunity for your business?

By way of example of these trends versus anti-trend discussions, this is a brief summary of a debate at a meeting of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia. The speaker discussed five megatrends that according to CSIRO would have the biggest influence on society in the coming years. A consultant from Bridge8 who attended the conference argued that each of these five trends could lead to the contrary. Here is a brief summary of these arguments:

When discussing megatrends internally, don't forget to discuss the potential anti-trends as well and see whether they constitute an opportunity (or a threat) to your business.


(You will find more tips & tricks, as well as a discussion of more than 20 megatrends in the book 'The impact of megatrends on your company' available on Amazon.com)

Tips and tricks to use megatrends for strategic innovation #4/5: 'communicate extensively'

If you’ve come all this way through the megatrends exercise, you will have collected a vast amount of valuable insights. Not all of these will be used for the conclusions or for the communication of the decisions that were based on this exercise. However, the pieces you don’t use might still be relevant to specific means.

• Your sales people might use them to have a better comprehension of the specific challenges and opportunities of the industries they’re in. A thorough understanding of the megatrends affecting them would enable more meaningful discussions with your customers;
• The insights gained through this exercise could help marketing to sharpen some of your key messages and reinforce the image of your company as a partner to your customers;
• Internal divisions would be better prepared for the trends affecting their activities and gain new ideas for innovation.

All stakeholders could benefit one way or another. Get the maximum out of the exercise and communicate extensively !

(More tips and tricks, as well as a study of the impact of more than 20 megatrends on businesses can be found in my new book 'The impact of megatrends on your business: How to assess the impact of long-term trends on your company and adapt your strategy to ensure future success ', available on Amazon.com)

Tips & tricks for using megatrends for strategic innovation #3/5: 'map the trends'

The most important part of the whole megatrend exercise is to draw valuable conclusions from it. Throughout the exercise you will have gathered tons of opinions and insights, but how do you make sense of all these?

You could write a lengthy report or presentation with all the valuable facts and conclusions, each developed through multiple angles and argumentations. Chances are that your stakeholders will be happy with all this information. They might even find the time to read it. Just before they put the report on their shelves, only to be retrieved at the next desk cleaning effort.

Better is to visualize the insights. And there’s no better way to visualize things, but to segment them.

You could for instance segment trends based on the impact they have on your company (Y-axis) and whether they have developed already, are doing so now or will do somewhere in the future (X-axis). This gives you a good idea on which trends you need to act on urgently:

A more sophisticated way would be to assess whether your company has any influence on the trends or on their consequences (Y axis) and whether they relate to your core business or not (X-axis). While the trends in the top-right box require immediate action, it is the trends in the top left box (‘influence’) that will be the most crucial for you from a competitive and innovation perspective. Think about it for a moment... And if you still don’t know why drop me a mail.

Another good way to visualize conclusions are heat maps. Say you list all the major customer segments you serve (rows) against major megatrends (columns). By coloring based on whether these segments are being threatened or can benefit from these trends, you obtain a valuable overview of the major challenges and opportunities your customers (and hence, indirectly, your business) are facing.

If you need to communicate just one thing from the whole megatrend exercise, it would be these type of graphics. Print them, put them on the walls in the offices of your stakeholders, on the landing page of your intranet, whatever. But make sure people think about these conclusions. 


Click if you missed the previous tips & tricks #1 'Look beyond the obvious' #2 'Discuss internally'

Tips & tricks for using megatrends for strategic innovation #2/5: 'discuss internally'

In the previous post of this series I discussed the selection of megatrends to include in the strategic innovation exercise.

The next step in using megatrends for strategic innovation is to brainstorm them internally. Don’t let any external consultant direct you into their opinions or convictions. Your people are the best judges on how to turn external market shifts into concrete opportunities for your business, so it makes sense to leverage all this internal knowledge.

However, to get the maximum out of these discussions, you’ll need to take a couple of rules into account (and, eventually, get some assistance from external people):

Organize ‘think tanks’ of 4-5 people per subject (demographic trends, geopolitical trends, climate and sustainability, etc)

• Include people with different background,  functions and levels of seniority in the discussions… diversity enriches !
• Take +/- 30 minutes discussion per trend;
• Structure the discussion (impact on industry, impact on customers, impact on channels, …), for instance using the business model canvas; 
• Brief the participants on forehand with a light, easy to read introduction to the trends that will be discussed –for instance with the megatrends fact sheets produced by i4fi.

Good thing is: people really appreciate to have discussions about the ‘bigger picture’ for their company –instead of the weekly commits and the day-to-day problems. It increases their involvement and commitment to the future of your business. In that sense it is also an excellent topic for part of your team meetings…