(book review) Futurewise - Patrick Dixon

It’s probably a matter of timing. I read this book in 2010, in the third edition published in 2003. This illustrates the challenge for every future-watcher: how can one ensure to be still relevant seven years from now?

The starting point is still attractive though: Dixon segments the global change into one that will be ‘Fast, Urban and Universal’ and another that will be ‘Tribal, Radical and Ethical’. These two overarching views of the future are conflicting, but both are happening indeed –even after seven years

The problem is that Dixon uses this idea to make over 500 predictions –or expectations- which are sometimes right (‘mobile phone becomes a PC’, ‘TV on the Web’, …) but often plain wrong (‘internet will destroy traditional banking’, ‘The successful transformation of Russia into a strong, vibrant, secure country will also do much to ease reforms in China’) or obsolete (‘majority of PC screens will still use cathode ray tubes’, or his failure to predict that wages in China and India will sooner or later rise to Western standards).

The logic behind some trends is sometimes awkward at best (‘Most computers are young. Therefore the majority of big [computer] failures are around the corner. And most will hit Small and Medium sized companies hardest’ –WHY?), if not absolutely inexistent (‘expect retail chains who will increase own-brand sales from 15-20% to 30% by 2010’ … no explanation at all behind this). This gives the impression Dixon is just spitting out his gut feel on each subject that pops into his mind. This  feeling is enhanced by the fact that, except for the categorization into 6 trends, there is very little structure to be found in this book.

Nevertheless, the book has its merits:

(1) The ‘Questions to management’ at the end of each chapter are certainly worthwhile food for thought for any business leaders, since they force him to think broadly about the –often not obvious- impact of trends on his business;

(2) Grouping the 500 trends into 6 themes that are ‘emotional’ (Fast, Tribal, …) rather than ‘factual’ (as for instance: ‘political’, ‘economical’, ‘social’, …) is certainly valuable since it permits a more dynamic study of the interrelated impact of each trend on different elements of society.

(3) Dixon’s 500 expectations are sometimes wrong or obsolete, but as often right and even still relevant nowadays. For instance, when he says ‘expect news gatherers of the future to be members of the public equipped with nothing other than video phones’. He might be wrong about the ‘video phone’ but surely  the Flip camera’s and alike would make this possible (just bought my first one, wonderful tool: Flip UltraHD Camcorder, 120 Minutes (Black)
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(4) Last but not least, many of Dixon’s thoughts would still be relevant today in that they would unleash a solid conversation about the future.

Take for instance, the finding that puberty is coming at an increasingly earlier age. According to Dixon this will drive parents to have more control over the activities of their kids. It’s worthwhile thinking further about that one, since it might drive much more changes than just monitoring Internet traffic of the kids. If this is true it would also drive the choices of living environment of the parents, their involvement in societal tasks (school) etc. In my eyes this ‘parental monitoring’ will also take the shape of a ‘partnership’ with the kids. In my immediate environment I see parents taking an increasingly active part of their puber’s life. One mother even goes to university classes with her daughter as a free student, not to control her, but just because they have the same passion for the subject.

I would’ve been ashamed at the thought when I was young. Kids now seem to take pride of it. Surely this will have an impact on the parent’s behavior (and spending patterns?) as well.

Another subject for debate is the ‘tribalism’ as one of the key shifts of the future. Dixon seems to interpret this in a limitative way, people would increasingly gather into smaller groups with a common identity. Apparently the full potential of Social Media wasn’t apparent yet at the moment Dixon wrote his book. Social media implies an ever growing size of the ‘groups’ to which we belong, driven not so much by commonalities of the group members, but rather by the way they are networked together. Same thing on the work flour: the virtualization of the Enterprise (which Dixon mentions as a trend) will make employees gather around common goals rather than around common skills or tasks.


But here lies the true value of the book: the sheer amount of ideas that it contains, even if some prove wrong, makes you think broad and deep into the trends that shape the future. All in all a worthwhile read.