Can Big Data save the planet?

Big data is perhaps best known to companies for its capacity to provide much more knowledge about their customers, and eventually predicting their consumption patterns. The power of Big Data for this mean can hardly be underestimated. I've read a story today of a father who got enraged after his 16 years old daughter got mailings from a company trying to sell her baby stuff (picture the scene if you have a 16 year old daughter yourself!). When an executive from the company called him to apologize for the mistake, the father told him there was no need to, since his daughter just admitted to be pregnant after all… The power of analytics…

But Big Data can be beneficial in a much more profound and meaningful way as well. It can drag people out of poverty and generate social benefit for plenty of people (see one of my next blogs). And, more spectacularly: it can be of tremendous help to build a more sustainable future. Let me give some high-level examples of how this would work:

• The most obvious example lays in the way we manage our energy consumption. So-called ‘smart buildings’, among others, use the tremendous power of data analytics to manage energy consumption in the most efficient way. Think of smart meters etcetera, nothing new. But soon the smartness in buildings will automatically calculate and pro-actively take decisions to provide the most comfortable experience, in the least energy-consuming way. Based on thorough calculation and prediction of your habits and wishes. Your lifestyle will be digitized –for your own comfort! – and Big Data will be the heart of it.
  
• A less obvious example now. Look at the big retailers. They pile a massive amount of food of which huge chunks are bound to turn to waste, just because they want –and, let’s not argue about this- need to make sure all their shoppers’ needs are immediately fulfilled, even if these are merely potential needs. Overconsumption is clearly a flaw in our system (with regards of sustainability issues, that is), but overproduction is even worse. I didn't find any figures about this yet (if you have, let me know), but I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of each two cows that is bred and fed to end on my weekly menu, ends up dumped on the wasteland. Tie this to how polluting a cow is during its lifetime, and you see where I’m heading… If Big Data can predict more accurately when and how we want our steaks (above the usual barbecue season prediction), perhaps we could adjust our cattle management and make it more sustainable, or at least less polluting.
  
• Which brings me to a next point… as the example of my weekly steak points out, if Big Data can predict my consumption of it more accurately, as well as where I’m likely to buy it, it will tremendously decrease the logistic strains linked with my consumption. My retailer will know when I need my steak, and avoid having a stockpile of steaks for the eventuality of me coming around to buy one. With the result of having to throw away half of them if I don’t get by while they maintain this stock, or having truckload of useless meat driving around to get me meat I don’t want at that moment… I know, I’m stretching the limits of my credibility here. But it’s not just about my steak. Project this example on millions of consumers, and you can easily see how predictive modeling (Big Data) could tremendously improve, make more efficient, and make less polluting the global logistic spider-web on which we have grown to be dependent on. 

 Okay, these examples are high-level, I grant you that. And they omit many peripheral yet important factors. Think of it: if a competitor of my retailer wants to attract me as a new client, he’d sure as hell would need to have a supply of juicy steaks for the eventuality that I would check him out. Only then can he start to be able to predict my consumption patterns and adjust his supply chain to it. And this without knowing whether I’d remain faithful to him, though he’d probably gather from my Facebook-feeds how likely to would be that I go back to my original retailer. Project this to thousands or millions of consumers… At the face of it, things surely will get more complicated with Big Data. But more sustainable as well…

Is Big Data really a megatrend?

Many people ask me why I don’t include ‘Big Data’ in my list of (mega)trends I am monitoring. Surely, ‘Big Data’ is more than just a buzz-word, and is certainly to evolve much further in the coming years?

Well, at the risk of being semantic about this, ‘Big Data’ as such is not exactly a trend. Analyzing big portions of information and turning it into insights is something humans have been doing increasingly since the start of written language. What has changed recently however is the sheer amount of data at our disposal, and the emergence of tools with which we can make since of all this data. But the exponential amount of data is in itself the consequence of other trends I closely monitor (social media, Internet of Things, …), and the new technologies are not so much a trend in itself, rather a natural response to our specific need in understanding the data.

That said, Big Data in itself will certainly become a big factor in many of the trends I follow (see the updated list hereunder). For instance, it can play a huge role in limiting the pace of climate change, through a better monitoring of the climate itself, for one. But one might think of more subtle, indirect impact of Big Data on climate change. Big Data could improve the complete supply chain of retailers, adjusting their stocks to what their customers are predicted by Big Data models to need in the near future, hence reducing waste and overproduction. Insurance companies could use Big Data to transform themselves into a service for people to avoid specific risks, again reducing potential waste (it could send an sms to its clients warning them to put their car in the garage when a big hail storm is underway, preventing damage to the car).

Okay, for some of the Big Data applications we still have a long way to go. But if its applications surpass the mere predictions of customer behavior for advertising needs –I have no doubt it will- it promises to have a big, positive impact on the efficiency (and, hence, the green-ness) with which our society is organized…

Stay tuned for more thoughts on this matter

Ah, for those in need of an introduction to Big Data, spend some time on these presentations:

How global demographics relate to climate change...

Another great presentation from our favorite statistician Hans Rosling, this time about the relationship between world demographics and climate change. I would somehow argue with his statement that the poorest portion of the world's population are the least polluting (aren't their likely to bake cement or farm their land in ways that are polluting? On the other hand, their total impact per capita would probably be less than in richer countries indeed).

But the overall message is clear: it's up to the richest countries to modify their behavior...

Top future predictions from The Futurist magazine

Getting far behind on my 'The Futurist' magazine (yes, I read this kind of stuff ;-). Luckily they put their major predictions from the Outlook 2013 in a video.

Nothing too exceptional in terms of predictions though, most of them are linear projections of what scientists are currently heavily working on. The last one (well, actually the number one) is quite intriguing though: evolutions in neuroscience will certainly give birth to a vast array of applications. I recently saw an experiment where someone could poor himself a pint just by thinking (very hard) of it... Can you imagine other applications?

Some views of the near and (very) far future

Going through some views of the future built by experts in the field, I thought I'd share the most eye-popping ones with you...

This one digs into the next 189 years and, as far as I'm concerned, isn't too surreal... although obviously the further you go into the future, the wilder the projections are. What's striking though is that climate change (and its devastating effects) go hand in hand with very sophisticated progress in technology. Okay, tech innovation will get into acceleration mode due to climate change, but surely one of the scenario's that could unfold is that climate change hampers technological innovation?





This video shows the results of a typical 'scenario planning' exercise. Since it was performed by the logistics group DHL, it obviously focuses on the impact of the scenario's on the global supply chain. But don't let this hinder you to take the time to watch it, since the scenario's developed in it have much more impact than just logistics:



This one also results from a scenario planning exercise, this time performed by the British government. It maps the 4 scenario's on whether society evolves into an individualistic vs social environment, and whether society take a pro-active vs a re-active stance against climate change:




Okay, forget about the childish animation, this clip is actually full of interesting projections based on technologies that are currently being developed... so this could very well be our lives 10-20 years from now:




Siemens' view of the future is obviously biased by what its own business will be providing in the future. Nevertheless, its a nice view of where building technology is heading:



This one focuses on urban architecture... not sure where he got the thoughts from, but it's still a beautiful clip to watch:



... and since we're talking about architecture, here's my all-time favorite: the self-sustaining floating city!