Trends in Clean Technology (adoption)

Slides from my intro speech at a debate about the adoption of clean technology and sustainability practices ate the KULeuven (University of Leuven)

Some advise for young (aspiring- futurists

I had the opportunity to give a lecture to (brilliant) post graduate students in 'Trendwatching' at the Hogeschool Gent. Ended my presentation with some advise for those of them who would make it their profession, which might be of interest to some of my readers:

Advise for young (aspiring) futurists from Frederic De Meyer

The vanishing corporation

Of course, the future is never extreme... but there are some very distinct signs that corporations as we know them are bound to evaporate as they are increasingly opening their operations to the external world. This won't be happening for all companies, obviously, but in one form or another it is already happening to many... Here's how:

The future of personalized medicine... not so fast

In my speeches I very often talk about personalized medicine as a showcase of an unavoidable future. After all it makes sense, no? Instead of prescribing medicines based on the average result they have on a test group (with many failures as a result), personalized medicines could provide patients with exactly what they need in order to cure. Result? More effective health care. Ah, and let's not forget: cost reductions!

But the real key to making this happen is DNA profiling, or, to be more precise: genome sequencing. As far as I know this can be done relatively easily and at a rapidly declining cost. What I didn't know was that the idea of using genome sequencing in health care provisioning still needs some way to get adopted by the health care providers in the first place!

This brilliant -and entertaining, even for those like me who understand very little about DNA and medicine-speech explains you why that is, and why genome sequencing should be used in the future:

Urbanization in India, challenges and opportunities

With 16% of world population living on 2% of the world's land mass, no doubt India has some challenges to resolve... Two third of Indians still live in rural areas, though this is rapidly changing since an increasing number of them move to the cities. This in turn forms another challenge, since most cities are ill equipped to absorb the extra population, at least not in a sustainable and healthy way. The city of Surat however shows that it can be done...

We will see the same challenges in other parts of the world that are coping with emerging megacities. I wonder whether new solutions will arise from them.

The (near) future of 3D printing

Of the many trends I closely monitor, 3D Printing is undoubtedly one of the most fascinating ones, given its sheer impact on the economic texture in which we have come to live... But, to many people I introduce this trend to, it still sounds like science-fiction, or at best just another gadget to print useless stuff with.

This presentation aims at showing how wrong this view is. 3D printing is much more than a gadget and, though its exact future evolution is relatively unsure, what's certain is that it is bringing new threats and opportunities to many industries.

Here are some slides I will use in my speech about the subject at IT Work's seminar on the future of manufacturing (slides are in English but the presentation will be in Dutch). See them as a brief introduction to the subject:

The future of energy according to Shell... not very reassuring...

No doubt big oil companies hold the key to how we will deal with energy after ‘Peak Oil’, and thus how we deal with sustainability overall. Given the stakes, they are likely to keep drilling for every drop of oil this world still contains, but surely they must prepare themselves for what’s coming after the last drop has been used, no?

This question made me particularly interested in the video oil giant Shell posted on Youtube, picturing the world in 2050, or at least how energy will relate to the world in 2050:

For those who don’t have 45 minutes to spend on the video, here’s a short account:

Overall the video is about how to change the current dependency on oil. The first part tells about alternatives for fossil oil. The ‘first generation’ alternative basically relates to ethanol extracted from sugar cane (mostly in Brazil) or corn (mostly in the US). The video points out a problem here: while ethanol from sugar cane is relatively efficient (producing 7 times more energy than it costs to produce), corn is absolutely not (energy produced more or less equals the amount of energy it costs to produce). Brazil can rely on its own production of sugar cane for its own energy needs, but cannot produce ethanol for the whole world, at least not without destroying vast amounts of rain forests and starving their own population (a second problem with ethanol production: it claims vast amounts of farmable land).

Up comes the second generation of alternatives, where ethanol, or any form of liquid fuel, is extracted from weeds, produced through photosynthesis or even synthetically (believe it or not, using methodologies used to produce anti-malaria drugs, if I understood it correctly). No doubt Shell is investing heavily in this, otherwise they would not have dwelled on this subject in their video (which, after all, serves to promote their business in some way). But the fact that no mention is made of when we could expect mainstream energy production from this source makes me think they are quite far from it… or, if you want to be cynical, perhaps they wait until the last drop of oil is extracted before revealing their capacity to generate energy at large scale from this source.

The second part is about reducing our energy consumption –or rather: make us use energy more smartly. Fair enough: it is brave of Shell to focus on this subject, since ultimately it reduces the need for their own products. On the other hand, according to their own projections (see the chart that one Shell employee draws in the video): demand for oil will likely grow to levels that  surpass supply by a number of times. According to any economic logic this will increase the price of oil, so regardless of the smarter use of energy in the future, Shell still looks into years of profitable business…

The video zooms in on a smarter use of our roads (through  self driving cars, with some appealing example of research done by Scania trucks) and ‘smart cities’ (with a compelling example of Masdar City in the UAE), as ways to reduce our energy dependence.

So did these examples reassure me with regard of the pending energy crises we are facing in the coming decades? Not for a millimeter. Did it reassure me in the way big oil companies are searching solutions for it? Not an inch.

Basically, the message of this video is this: we’ll think along a bit in how to reduce energy dependency, we’ll even do some research in alternatives for oil, but for the next three decades or so we’ll make sure to protect our profits.

What the story totally misses out on, in my humble opinion, is the grander scale of changes that are currently occurring, and might expand dramatically in next three decades. Evolutions such as 3D printing, the sharing economy, collaborative working tools and peer-to-peer development are, while relatively small still, trends that indicate that the very texture of our economic model is radically shifting. The very problems expressed in the video, while offering no compelling sign of how to solve them, will make these developments even more pressing. To name just one example: if every house or community somewhere in the future would own a sizeable 3D printer, what would the effect be on the global supply chain, global transport –and, hence, on oil consumption?

Shell’s message in the video forms a nice example of how to think within the confinement of one’s own paradigm, but it’s not this kind of thinking that will solve the energy problem overall.

Why national borders are not set in stone...

If you think European national borders were fixed in stone, think again... here's a hallucinating trip of thousands years of nation building in Europe, just makes me wonder how this video will look like a thousand years from now !

Will (and should) governments be run like businesses in the future?

It is a question that has been puzzling me for a while now: how will ‘governments’ evolve in the future. The question might sound bizarre. Haven’t governments always been around? Most probably, but not necessarily in the form we experience them now. Even government can morph into different shapes and functions, and indeed have done so in the past. Furthermore, the current crisis, the impact of climate change if (or: when) the worst scenario’s materialize, and specific trends such as disintermediation, might impact governments as we know them quite fundamentally.

I have recently been sent a video which gave me further food for thought. It’s about why governments should not be run like corporations:

Created by OnlineMBA.com

All solid arguments as far as I’m concerned, even if you omit the ideological beliefs some might have about the subject. But my question is whether these arguments still stand in current circumstances.

Let’s look at the first argument: governments do not exist to make profit, but have to spend each Dollar of income to improve the common good. Sounds great. However, if like me you live in a (democratic) country that sits on a burden of over 100% of debt vs GDP, and a yearly budget deficit of 3% (and, no, I’m not Greek or Italian), you might wonder if governments shouldn’t be forced to make profits for the years to come, if you want to avoid jeopardizing the future of our children and grandchildren (after all, someone will have to pay the bill). Sure, the money governments collects should (and mostly does) serve the common good. But the sad fact is that they have ever fewer money available to serve this purpose. Some even start divesting in certain public responsibilities, at least in states where public finance have come under strain. In case you wonder: no, this trend is not limited to the ‘failed states’.

The second argument is that citizens are not shareholders. Small shareholders have no means to weigh on corporate decisions, but in a perfectly working democratic process, citizens should weigh on decisions that affect them. But how big is my vote as a citizen, really? My vote only counts when it is shared by a majority of voters, just like it would if I was a shareholder of a company, no?  At any rate, even if it is shared by a majority, I would have no guarantee my ideas would be effectively implemented, probably much less so in a democratic government election compared to a shareholder meeting (where the CEO mostly has to act upon decisions taken by shareholders).  In a way, I know of no democracy that genuinely implements the opinions and choices of the majority of its citizens.

The third argument is about customers vs constituents. Surely, governments should not treat us as mere customers, choosing to opt out on us when we’re too hard to handle or to serve? Makes sense, even if I hear lots of my fellow citizens wishing their government would look at them as clients rather than voting cattle. But there’s something else going on, made inevitable by the crisis we are in and the poor public finances in most Western countries: the rise of public-private partnerships. For an increasing number of tasks, the help of private companies is the only way to ensure things ‘get done’. And have no doubt that the ‘private’ piece of the equation is aiming at maximize profit, closing down any activity that is not profitable, even if it serves the common good.

The ideas in the video are certainly valid, and I have no hesitation in underwriting them. My fear, however, is that we are already in a maelstrom that will turn governments into businesses, whether we like it or not. With Naomie Klein’s ‘The shock doctrine’ in mind: we’re in a perfect storm to make this happen. Just read the ‘recommendations’ of the IMF or the European Commission to have clearer sight on the hidden agenda. While their arguments are valid, their solutions are not necessarily.

On the other hand, one has to wonder whether this will not lead to a situation where the government simply becomes irrelevant. If crises (both financial and climatic) worsen in decades to come, and governments increasingly fail at fulfilling their basic mission, will private initiatives not simply take over? Is the outbreak of young social entrepreneurs (and even social innovation within existing corporations) not an early sign of this?

Guesswork, of course… but not that idle I believe…

Can Big Data save the planet?

Big data is perhaps best known to companies for its capacity to provide much more knowledge about their customers, and eventually predicting their consumption patterns. The power of Big Data for this mean can hardly be underestimated. I've read a story today of a father who got enraged after his 16 years old daughter got mailings from a company trying to sell her baby stuff (picture the scene if you have a 16 year old daughter yourself!). When an executive from the company called him to apologize for the mistake, the father told him there was no need to, since his daughter just admitted to be pregnant after all… The power of analytics…

But Big Data can be beneficial in a much more profound and meaningful way as well. It can drag people out of poverty and generate social benefit for plenty of people (see one of my next blogs). And, more spectacularly: it can be of tremendous help to build a more sustainable future. Let me give some high-level examples of how this would work:

• The most obvious example lays in the way we manage our energy consumption. So-called ‘smart buildings’, among others, use the tremendous power of data analytics to manage energy consumption in the most efficient way. Think of smart meters etcetera, nothing new. But soon the smartness in buildings will automatically calculate and pro-actively take decisions to provide the most comfortable experience, in the least energy-consuming way. Based on thorough calculation and prediction of your habits and wishes. Your lifestyle will be digitized –for your own comfort! – and Big Data will be the heart of it.
  
• A less obvious example now. Look at the big retailers. They pile a massive amount of food of which huge chunks are bound to turn to waste, just because they want –and, let’s not argue about this- need to make sure all their shoppers’ needs are immediately fulfilled, even if these are merely potential needs. Overconsumption is clearly a flaw in our system (with regards of sustainability issues, that is), but overproduction is even worse. I didn't find any figures about this yet (if you have, let me know), but I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of each two cows that is bred and fed to end on my weekly menu, ends up dumped on the wasteland. Tie this to how polluting a cow is during its lifetime, and you see where I’m heading… If Big Data can predict more accurately when and how we want our steaks (above the usual barbecue season prediction), perhaps we could adjust our cattle management and make it more sustainable, or at least less polluting.
  
• Which brings me to a next point… as the example of my weekly steak points out, if Big Data can predict my consumption of it more accurately, as well as where I’m likely to buy it, it will tremendously decrease the logistic strains linked with my consumption. My retailer will know when I need my steak, and avoid having a stockpile of steaks for the eventuality of me coming around to buy one. With the result of having to throw away half of them if I don’t get by while they maintain this stock, or having truckload of useless meat driving around to get me meat I don’t want at that moment… I know, I’m stretching the limits of my credibility here. But it’s not just about my steak. Project this example on millions of consumers, and you can easily see how predictive modeling (Big Data) could tremendously improve, make more efficient, and make less polluting the global logistic spider-web on which we have grown to be dependent on. 

 Okay, these examples are high-level, I grant you that. And they omit many peripheral yet important factors. Think of it: if a competitor of my retailer wants to attract me as a new client, he’d sure as hell would need to have a supply of juicy steaks for the eventuality that I would check him out. Only then can he start to be able to predict my consumption patterns and adjust his supply chain to it. And this without knowing whether I’d remain faithful to him, though he’d probably gather from my Facebook-feeds how likely to would be that I go back to my original retailer. Project this to thousands or millions of consumers… At the face of it, things surely will get more complicated with Big Data. But more sustainable as well…

Is Big Data really a megatrend?

Many people ask me why I don’t include ‘Big Data’ in my list of (mega)trends I am monitoring. Surely, ‘Big Data’ is more than just a buzz-word, and is certainly to evolve much further in the coming years?

Well, at the risk of being semantic about this, ‘Big Data’ as such is not exactly a trend. Analyzing big portions of information and turning it into insights is something humans have been doing increasingly since the start of written language. What has changed recently however is the sheer amount of data at our disposal, and the emergence of tools with which we can make since of all this data. But the exponential amount of data is in itself the consequence of other trends I closely monitor (social media, Internet of Things, …), and the new technologies are not so much a trend in itself, rather a natural response to our specific need in understanding the data.

That said, Big Data in itself will certainly become a big factor in many of the trends I follow (see the updated list hereunder). For instance, it can play a huge role in limiting the pace of climate change, through a better monitoring of the climate itself, for one. But one might think of more subtle, indirect impact of Big Data on climate change. Big Data could improve the complete supply chain of retailers, adjusting their stocks to what their customers are predicted by Big Data models to need in the near future, hence reducing waste and overproduction. Insurance companies could use Big Data to transform themselves into a service for people to avoid specific risks, again reducing potential waste (it could send an sms to its clients warning them to put their car in the garage when a big hail storm is underway, preventing damage to the car).

Okay, for some of the Big Data applications we still have a long way to go. But if its applications surpass the mere predictions of customer behavior for advertising needs –I have no doubt it will- it promises to have a big, positive impact on the efficiency (and, hence, the green-ness) with which our society is organized…

Stay tuned for more thoughts on this matter

Ah, for those in need of an introduction to Big Data, spend some time on these presentations:

How global demographics relate to climate change...

Another great presentation from our favorite statistician Hans Rosling, this time about the relationship between world demographics and climate change. I would somehow argue with his statement that the poorest portion of the world's population are the least polluting (aren't their likely to bake cement or farm their land in ways that are polluting? On the other hand, their total impact per capita would probably be less than in richer countries indeed).

But the overall message is clear: it's up to the richest countries to modify their behavior...

Top future predictions from The Futurist magazine

Getting far behind on my 'The Futurist' magazine (yes, I read this kind of stuff ;-). Luckily they put their major predictions from the Outlook 2013 in a video.

Nothing too exceptional in terms of predictions though, most of them are linear projections of what scientists are currently heavily working on. The last one (well, actually the number one) is quite intriguing though: evolutions in neuroscience will certainly give birth to a vast array of applications. I recently saw an experiment where someone could poor himself a pint just by thinking (very hard) of it... Can you imagine other applications?

Some views of the near and (very) far future

Going through some views of the future built by experts in the field, I thought I'd share the most eye-popping ones with you...

This one digs into the next 189 years and, as far as I'm concerned, isn't too surreal... although obviously the further you go into the future, the wilder the projections are. What's striking though is that climate change (and its devastating effects) go hand in hand with very sophisticated progress in technology. Okay, tech innovation will get into acceleration mode due to climate change, but surely one of the scenario's that could unfold is that climate change hampers technological innovation?





This video shows the results of a typical 'scenario planning' exercise. Since it was performed by the logistics group DHL, it obviously focuses on the impact of the scenario's on the global supply chain. But don't let this hinder you to take the time to watch it, since the scenario's developed in it have much more impact than just logistics:



This one also results from a scenario planning exercise, this time performed by the British government. It maps the 4 scenario's on whether society evolves into an individualistic vs social environment, and whether society take a pro-active vs a re-active stance against climate change:




Okay, forget about the childish animation, this clip is actually full of interesting projections based on technologies that are currently being developed... so this could very well be our lives 10-20 years from now:




Siemens' view of the future is obviously biased by what its own business will be providing in the future. Nevertheless, its a nice view of where building technology is heading:



This one focuses on urban architecture... not sure where he got the thoughts from, but it's still a beautiful clip to watch:



... and since we're talking about architecture, here's my all-time favorite: the self-sustaining floating city!

Strategic Market Intelligence, how to define your strategic direction based on your own research...

Do you think you need external companies to gather data about your market?
Do you think strategic market research is difficult and expensive?
Do you think market data is unambiguous and the conclusions crystal clear?

... well think again... here's some tips and tricks to perform market intelligence yourself, that still leads to valuable input for your strategic decisions:

Strategic market intelligence tips and myths voka april 2013 from Frederic De Meyer

Are consumers ready for the sharing economy?

It's so GenY, isn't it? Not wanting to 'own' stuff anymore, but paying for it only if and when you use it... it works for cars (even in my home country), for holiday resorts, for working space... could it work for clothes, for computers or for your garden? Well, why not... As a recent article in The Economist explains, there are plenty of very good reasons to prefer rental over ownership, and these reasons are not limited to GenY, to be honest...

The idea is not new neither. A library does nothing else than 'sharing' books (for a fee), to take just one example. Maybe -and that's just my thought- the renewal of the sharing trend is just a way to get back to our very fundamental instincts... at any rate, it is a trend bound for amplification...

The New Sharing Economy

8 new ways to compete in the new normal

8 new ways to compete in the new normal from Frederic De Meyer

How to use megatrend assessments in innovation workshops

How to turn knowledge on long-term (mega)trends into ideas for innovation in your company and/or industry? Here's some ideas on how to integrate them in innovation workshops:

Options for using megatrends in innovation workshops from Frederic De Meyer

The future according to Microsoft...

Some nice features in this video showing how Microsoft sees the future...: