The future of China

It's no doubt an important question, since so much of the world's economic growth depend on it still: how will China evolve in the coming years?

One thing that I was made aware of by George Magnus' excellent book The Age of Aging: How Demographics are Changing the Global Economy and Our World is that China -which will have 23% of its population older than 65 by 2020- will be confronted by the same aging population challenge as most of the Western countries:




But for the next couple of years there's another challenge that emerges and that will likely have its repercussions on the global economy: the build-up of risks in China's banks, as a result of the stimulation of credit grants through the banks, amounting to a considerable portion of GDP -in other words, another bubble... Though it's not necessarily going to end dramatically, it increases the risk factor tremendously...

something I'll need to dig a bit deeper into...